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  2. 97-98 was not half bad for the Great Lakes/SNE if i remember correctly. December ‘97 was decent here while it was a total shutout in 2015.
  3. 1. The July SOI comes in way down at -26.8, by far the lowest July SOI on record. The only lower ones during met. summer were the -27.7 in June of 1905 and the -27.0 in June of 1896, both incoming El Niños. 2. This brings us to 82 straight days of -SOI. Going back to when records are readily available (since 1991), this is second only to the 100 days of 1998! It’s too early to tell whether or not the current streak will reach 100 days.
  4. Hit 59 last night, fall is coming!!
  5. WB 6Z GEFS and EPS thru Day 5. Rain chances moving back in later on Sunday through Tuesday on Eastern shore.
  6. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  7. CANSIPS now getting close to a +4C ONI peak…
  8. I buy that for the mid atlantic but even up here? I’m concerned it will be too warm for sustained winter and we aren’t going to get the nickle and dime events we normally get.
  9. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  10. Monday looking rainy
  11. Couldn't agree more. Very disruptive and destructive in places.
  12. Pretty classic wet microburst look on soundings if we can get anything to materialize
  13. 51.6 this morning. Depth, orientation and slow movement of ULL over OV in opposition to HP off the coast will determine who gets how much rain from Sunday - Tuesday. We need to start August as a wet month! I have only received 62% of normal for July.
  14. After no measurable rain in the last 9 days and the low dews over the last few, the lawn is crunchy. Sprinklers are on full send this morning.
  15. Monday could be interesting. We are juiced to the teets as far as. Moisture goes. If we can get decent shear like gfs has, could be severe in spots. At the least could be prolific rain and maybe decent ltg with those dews.
  16. Monday could be interesting. We are juiced to the teets as far as. Moisture goes. If we can get decent shear like gfs has, could be severe in spots. At the least could be prolific rain and maybe decent ltg with those dews.
  17. I was still editing and added an opening paragraph. This is projected to happen during climate change. I am not certain about seasonal variations, though June 2026 has been quite wet. A Finland publication describing climate change refers to increasing winter rains. https://itameri.fi/en/state-of-the-baltic-sea/climate-change/ This year, January-February were drier than normal in Scandinavia, but March was wetter than normal.
  18. Today
  19. Thanks, Don. But do you have any comments on the wet W, C, and N Europe (~+7”/year) averaged out year-round 2016-25 per the map I posted and how it does or doesn’t relate to CC?
  20. 060 FXUS61 KPHI 311012 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 612 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The timing of the late weekend/early next week frontal system has slowed a bit, with Sunday now looking mostly dry and most precipitation coming in Sunday Night into Monday. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall was added for areas along and north/west of the I-95 corridor on Monday. Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Tranquil weather takes over through Saturday though a few very isolated sea-breeze showers cannot be ruled out this afternoon. 2. A frontal system on Sunday and Monday will bring the next opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Increasing confidence in potential heavy rain on Monday.
  21. This was the hottest at CAE according to the Euro
  22. What a weenie that kid is. Who’s the Dad?
  23. Thanks. I see that this is calling for the hottest being 101 at CAE, which would be their hottest of the summer to date. This reminds me that I forgot to mention that CAE finally reached 100 on July 28th although Augusta still hasn’t.
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