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Euro stopped closing off that damn Canadian vort this run!

march 2017...and the day before mitchell volk warned that he thought it was possible for the city and nearby suburbs; he was correct; the sleet line went all the way up though north jersey still had a good storm; we had a few inches and the shore had so little a guy posted himself bass fishing in ocean county during " the blizzard"....and he caught a few.....

Look at that schlong of lows pointed NW right at Ginxy's kennel

Just remember that if the ECMWF caves to the GFS, the Euro is still king and the GFS still sucks.

Paging @ineedsnow to find it.

I was wondering that yesterday when Ralph gave the update. It seemed like Hurricane was reacting to the 12z runs. But I didn’t watch the video or know when he records them, just my hunch. Still, Hurricane knows his $hit, so it would be foolish to dismiss his thoughts.

As big of a shift as it was, looks like we need another 50-100 mile shift NW for anyone in outside of i95

Totally fair, just for my thinking the parallels to the follow up storm a week after 1/25 are undeniable. Of course hoping for a better outcome.

Wagons west!

Always sumthang!

one day in the future you will be waiting up for them to get home, and worried as hell.....especially when they shut the phone off so you don't bother them....

Well, that’s fine Ray. That’s a constructive criticism based upon years of experience or whatever. … It’s not filling the thread with garbage, which is frankly not fair and no pun intended, misguided I don’t agree or disagree… You could actually philosophically say that it sucks at East Coast cycle Genesis. It’s so persistent so maybe that’s telling. Just a thought.

Sigh, reading this tonight, and it is clear even many long-time posters are just making definitive statements that just were not true. Declaring any model victorious 3.5+ days out is just wild. The EURO is NOT infallible, just like the GFS. Models are human-made and thus not perfect. Weather models are literally attempting to predict the future. There are so many components that can cause so much to go wrong. Each model does have strengths and weaknesses. The GFS does tend to do well with northeastern storms. Sure, it isn’t perfect. We have had big letdowns even within a day. I’ll never forget years ago watching the rain/snow line heading further north than any model had it, and instead of over a foot of snow, we received a few inches. We should talk about patterns and systems and try not to let emotions cloud judgements. Just judging by the tenor of the threads lately, it seems many are ready for spring. But let’s see where things go. Plenty of solutions still on the table.

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Been there. Good luck

Lopped off a large majority of those eastern members..that's a good sign. Gotta get this to day 3 or 3.5 now, as mentioned

The 18Z GFS suite surpringly pretty much held close to the 12Z. Also, the 18Z Euro suites (regular and AI) all got snowier.

Its on Weatherbell but there is only a 00Z and 12Z run there. I am not sure if some websites have an 18 and 06

that's all that matters euro ai came out way west is what missed

Ukie eps

Not caught up in the thread but wow 18z Euro has a shift west + a healthier northwestern precip shield. I had just told my wife to write this thing off, not about to believe the GFS on an island again. Positive development if this repeats next run. Euro has been locked in on nothing.

My definition of a trend is 3 or more consecutive runs showing similar outcomes across guidance.

Sref came west

Apparently there is a PARA cmc however do not know where to find it. They posted in the NY forum a few times in the past.