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I’m starting to think strong is probably the floor with this event. Modeling has very significant “twin” TC development on both sides of the hemisphere

Upglide right over that boundary

So choosing 2 data points out of a possible 335 to make a trend without any uncertainty analysis is good while taking all 335 with a robust uncertainty analysis is cherry-picking? Make that make sense. And let me preempt your gaslighting. I didn't pick the 335 data point subset or claim that it would be sufficient to draw conclusions about whether the planet was warming or not. You did.

Got 0.30" of rain overnight. A couple stronger cells with vivid lightning passed just barely north, got a good view.

Looks like it’s raining sort of where it needs it most ? relative to drought ballyhoo

Oh I’m sure it’s cruel blue balling … but we dream

yup...had that look yesterday on guidance. Was waiting to see if SPC would expand the marginal and they just did

Given the PDO changes since 2023-24 I very seriously doubt the PDO stays negative if we see a strong to super El Niño. Here is a really informative series of tweets from a Met out in Colorado. He is completely neutral and has zero bias for cold or warmth:

2004-2005 may be a fine analog if you account for the fact that El Nino will be stronger.

Looks like we will become a bit more unsettled starting today through Thursday. Will be a little help with it being bone dry.

6z nipped that back a bit…seabreeze look on the GFS and EC op. AIs not enthused.

Some EML in place. Could be a few decent bangers near and just north of front

Unfortunately ..we gotta get through Thursday first

looks light

ho man... 18z Saturday on the 00z Euro

another snowless March for many of us

Some stats for Winter '25-'26 for me: -One record low on 12/5 -Lowest temp of -10 on 2/9 with a total of 9 below zero lows, the most since '14-'15. 29 below 32 days, same as last winter, average is 22 for me. Longest streak of below 32 days was 9, the most since '17-'18. -Total snowfall is 46.3", which is +5.1" for me. I jinxed nyself with snowfall after I pushed all my banks back on 1/26. Below is the monthly snowfall and how it compares to average. -Nov snowfall: .2" (-1.5") -Dec snowfall: 17.0" (+7.6") -Jan snowfall: 21.3" (+11.4") -Feb snowfall: 6.6" (-7.5") -Mar snowfall: 1.2" (-5.2")

Yup. Pouring here although some of these reflectivities are brightbanding. Hopefully we can wetbulb assist this airmass to more forum members.

A moderate el nino would be nice for a change. We haven't had a true one since 2002-03. Closest we had was 2006-07 (but that stalled at 0.9 on the ONI and RONI) and 2009-10 (but that went over 1.5). Moderate el ninos seem to be the sweet spot for good winters in the Eastern US. The only one that didn't really pan out was 1994-95, but that was due to a -PDO, and even then, we got one good month of winter weather (February).

I cant remember a recent Spring that had this many temperature swings. One day I'm having to blast my furnace & space heaters, the next, screen doors open and window fans blasting. I've been trying to avoid uncovering the AC units, but with this warm stretch, and people visiting on Easter, I don't think I have a choice.

2nd to this

Expect the cooling shits to arrive NNE to SSW by this afternoon starting NE zones. Brian's already pretty well f'ed while Kevin might spare some humanity. Front will wobble around along the Pike tomorrow but climo argues it's correcting S. That's a nasty unwanted polar high moving E out of Ontario spanning mid week... warm enthusiasts might turn to other hobbies until Friday. Models have finally coalesced for a Friday AM scour out. Thursday is faux warmth in that pressure pattern as that's a piping E wind off the SST nadir. Good luck. Probably for Metro west of Boston, even down in CT ... that could be a 25 F day to day temperature change from 18z to 21z, between Thur and Fri

Good all on 2009-2010...that was a slight -PDO......so there was three consecutive prior to 2014. I feel like if we remain negative PDO again, it's going to be more like 2004 and 2009 in that it won't be severely so. I could see something like that.

March is going to be the first widespread AN temperature month for Eastern US cities since September. October and November were NN, and of course, December, January, and February were solidly BN.

Daw Daw Daw