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Cranking the lake effect machine in late August. It’s gotta be a good sign for winter.

as I spent a lot of time in Falmouth growing up. Buzzards Bay is an amazing place. Has it's own special type of weather on sea and shore.

Some of my best memories as a kid are spending weeks down the cape in harwich with the fam and all my cousins and just relaxing, playing games, hucking rocks at seagulls and doing all sorts of crazy stuff. The days well before smartphones and the internet took over practically everything. It’s something you never forget and it kills me that half my family has either moved south or is no longer with us. It’s not the same without the people you love.

well he did say rarely

That is a pretty dry pattern moving forward.

Some days I'm only good for an hour at the beach but others I can hang out all day. I most enjoy swimming in the ocean but I've learned to bring an umbrella and a book if the family wants to hang for a bit. Late afternoon, into late evening hangs, on the Outer Cape beaches that allow fires, is lifelong memories. Didn't get out there this summer but got in multiple Falmouth trips. Overland Permit at Race Point on a clear night is mind blowing.

yeah same cyclone-68 i just gave it a watch too and most definitely is interesting from a meteorological standpoint

Oh man, so jealous you’re seeing them.

Everything you said makes sense. Right here in my normally highly vulnerable location along with very high water table due to an insane nearly 17” of rainfall month to date (without a TC causing any of it obviously), I’m quite pleased about the current pattern. Thus I feel about as safe as I’m ever going to feel in late August when sometimes I’m on pins and needles wondering if I’m going to luck out. The big question though is whether an autumn-like pattern in much of August in the E US overall means that same pattern will likely continue through at least most of Sept. or do these anomalous fallish patterns tend to change or even reverse? There may not be a large enough dataset to analyze this.

That's crazy, I'm like 5 mi from you.

Is no one going to acknowledge this alternate universe ass comment from @nycwinter?!?!?!

I enjoyed this…Very interesting…Never understood (till now?) why as a set up it was incredibly rare for this part of the country

Way more grass there than Lava’s.

I walked out with a flat of cans and a few bottles and I was one of the few that could carry out my purchase. Dolly after dolly being wheeled out the door with 2 to 3 flats of beer. Each flat had 24 fully loaded. This was my first time visiting and was thoroughly impressed with the operation and vibe. Just a bunch of folks sitting all over the place eating from food trucks and drinking sitting in Adirondack chairs.

Quite the deluge here, with a 3-day total of 0.04" (0.08" for the month).

Yea I remember that. I think October 2018 we got to like 98° the first week of October. It was terrible.

Another .31" this afternoon/evening. Up to .72" for the month.

Highs: New Brnswck: 85 PHL: 85 TTN: 84 TEB: 83 EWR: 82 LGA: 81 ISP: 81 ACY: 80. NYC: 80 JFK: 80 BLM: 79

If there was no water in the background I would have guessed that you were vacationing at @Lava Rock house

Usually we pay for a cool late August/ early September with a blowtorch October. It doesn't have any sway on the winter.

I am absolutely not disputing climo and most EC storms are in September, I am simply saying the current pattern is not conducive for EC landfalls unless something spins up from a stalled front. The trough is well entrenched and acts like a wall where it’s centered far enough east that anything coming from the MDR will be sent ots. Looking at the next two weeks this pattern largely remains intact. That brings us to the peak of the season and takes a good chunk of time out for something to hit. I’m not saying we won’t get a storm, but the current pattern strongly favors home brew and recurves. Given we’re in peak season, burning weeks here decreases the odds of a strikes by decreasing the amount of time available for one to happen, that is my only point. One would think the carribean and gulf would be in play especially with fronts rotting in the northern GOM but it’s been eerily quiet. We’ll see if our invest can change that. But for the next couple weeks I feel very confident the east coast will be safe from a MDR storm. I definitely would not rule out home brew too

That looks a lot like winter there…

There are currently some thunderstorms in western New York State and scattered thunderstorms across central Pennsylvania along an advancing front. Parts of the region could pick up a shower or thundershower overnight. Many parts of the region will remain dry. If New York City does not receive any rain, it will be on track to see no rainfall for the entire August 22-31 period. Only the following years have seen no rainfall during that time: 1876, 1881, 1894, 1902, 1909, 1921, 1925, 1953, and 2007. Two thirds of those years saw a dry September. The least rainfall was 0.97" in 1881. The most rainfall was 8.68" in 1894. Of those nine years, 66.7% had less than 3" of rain during September. That figure for all other years was 45.6%, meaning that the dry end to August suggested a nearly 50% increase in the likelihood of a dry September. Those findings are consistent with some of the long-range guidance. It should be noted that the CFSv2 shows wetter than normal conditions for the Northeast:

biting insects suck