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Euro run will be interesting. Does it favor one look over the other or will it have its own island real estate as well?

Both are good for different reasons but the key being they’re hilariously different at h5 with how they handle the energy (gfs and Ukie)

Very cold & no snow just stinks worse than a skunk. GaWx gave an update on the possible MJO phase going into February. Could be phase 1/2/3 which would back the Weeklies warmer February. Luckily the LR forecasts have been horrible. Can we go back to 5 day forecasts? Lol.

I'm gonna go ahead and take a different approach here, Ray. I mean I'm not trying to abase what your saying ... I'm just going go with persistence. It's hard to knock it. At some point, the onus is on reality to start proving the models wrong. Which ... they may not precisely be right in how it gets done, but the principle/law of least action ( Law of least action is real in physical philosophy btw - ) has been winning too long.

There has been a trend dating back several days to delay the decay of that western ridge...not sure who could have foreseen that months ago (raises hand). Decent shot it's got a bit more to go there.

UKMET with two consecutive runs showing hit. Output looks good. We hug!

Equivalent of a blown save in baseball. Also Kansas blowing a comfortable lead at West Virginia. Well at least the train wreck of the Chiefs season is over!

I call BS on the GFS bifurcating the energy parcels like that on approach...pretty sure we get something out of the follow up deal. 00z EURO was just a bit too far N with the H5 low...easily correctable, especially with more PNA trends. Hold off on taking a total L.

Apparently, a few tornadoes happened with that on Friday. Twas an interesting system to start off January.

The weekend is definitely looking more interesting. That was still a potent shrtwave on the UK. Euro should be interesting

I think it's more likely he'll present the underlying information that he uses in his analysis. He might also reread some of the citations at the end of the link he posted and sharpen up his own analysis. And then everybody benefits.

kicking the can. We went from 1/4-6 all the way out to the 18th now. Big Jan has turned to big meh

A step backwards with a weaker wave though. It looks nice at the surface anyway

From folklore to science: The 'January Thaw' is real, as the Northeast and Middle Atlantic states are about to find out | Cornell Chronicle

ho wow man... imagine the deliciousness in schadenfreude if this ukmet run scores. and before you ask, no - it's not coming up here given everything priceless -

06z EURO did appear to be moving in the direction of the CMC...at least relative to it's 00z snooze-fest.

UK with another solid run. Why is it doing this to us? Lol

I'm not sure how long it lasts, but it is more typically towards the end of the month. I've always felt it is one of those things that you can subjectively fit into any January... there's always going to be a few days warmer than all of the others.

Want to know what's messed up? I'd prefer nothing over that verifying.

looks pretty sweet

Nice sunny day, and not bitter. That's always a plus. Colder months are so cloudy. Sunny days lift the spirit.

Jesus, I can't even win in some twisted GEM fantasy....I need to hibernate and wait for spring. #boxingdayed

He's already planning his trip up to the AK North Slope to see the dawn redwoods and ginkgoes growing.

Is there an actual definition for how long a January thaw lasts at CPK? Just an AI Google search... A January thaw in Central Park typically lasts about a week, sometimes a little longer, with temperatures rising significantly above average before returning to normal winter conditions, though the exact duration and intensity vary yearly.

ah.. gotcha... i guess we all want what we want from the weather. personally, i do so much outdoorsy stuff from bike rides to disk golf turneys to regular golf to tennis, and boogie boarding... all of which is mitigated by excessive dps. save for the waves perhaps. i've always been partial to those evenings in the summer where the air is kinetircally charged with out the dp weight. 7 pm and there's like this metallic warmth ...the breeze is soothing. pure energy. the sun is no longer blaring down like your shoulders like a 50 lb ream of roofing shingles, and your ballz aren't default stuck to the sides.