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0z GFS has bumped up its total for MSP. .

Ummm…. No

Willis has 18 completions on 21 attempts. That’s pathetic defense.

I think the two main things to worry about is how quickly things change from rain to snow in the morning and how much of the backside of the band pivots over us tomorrow night. .

Lol. That it was .

I’m a fan of using change in snow depth maps vs Kuchera. Still puts down 7-10” across the metro.

Blew past the record high today at 78. Not sure what the all time December record is, but I bet we were close. I’m sick of this. Someone please bring winter back.

The Pack has scored 24 points in 10 mins of possession. I think they might still be in it.

I’m keeping my expectations in check with a ~6” storm, but it’s hard not to think big given model trends. NWS write up on this one will be a good read for sure.

The Packers fan wasn’t wrong pushing Flowers out of the stands.

That should do it gentlemen

I said what I said

Very low flow at 925mb has allowed for a near-stationary low-level cloud deck to develop. This is reflecting on the temp maps, where it is in the low 20s near Philadelphia and Bucks county, but holding around 30 degrees here in Chester County. Neat stuff

Models are all spitting out 3-5 inches of snow north of the 45th in our area, fingers crossed that's right, but still worried about the warm layer coming up quick to flip to freezing rain. Hopefully Tolland, CT gets 0.5 and we stay mostly snow and sleet!

True. And I don’t care.

I think @RodneyS will be updating this a lot next month.

If this pans out, it’d be cool to read a summary of how this all played out. This wasn’t even on my radar on Christmas Day, and within 24 hours it started to look like a major snowstorm could be heading our way. It’d be interesting to read from someone more knowledgeable than me how things changed that much over such a short time frame. .

This is purely a scheme problem--and that falls on Zach Orr. The secondary doesn't even LOOK confident right now.

Derrick Henry is still a beast

Here is the complete obs string for BOS for the Bliz of 93. I highlighted the "best winter ob EV-A" for BOS! I can hear CoastalWx pining already. 14-MAR-93 BOS SA 2351 40 SCT 160 SCT 220 -OVC 15 036/21/3/2822G31/964/PK WND 2837/13 PRESRR/ 278 1128 90409 33 CHH RADAT ZERO BOS SA 2252 160 SCT E220 OVC 15 012/21/2/2821G32/957/FEW CUFRA AC OVC PTLY THN PRESRR BOS SA 2153 120 SCT E220 OVC 15 983/22/1/2726G37/948/FEW CUFRA OVC PTLY THN PK WND 2737/51 PRESRR SUN VSB BOS SA 2052 42 SCT 120 SCT E220 OVC 15 958/22/2/2830G38/941/OVC PTLY THN PK WND 2846/02 PRESRR SUN VSB/ 290 1178 BOS SA 1953 42 SCT E120 OVC 15 927/23/3/2828G42/932/PK WND 2842/51 PRESRR BOS SA 1850 42 SCT M120 OVC 15 898/22/5/2629G38/923/PK WND 2942/29 PRESRR BOS SA 1750 42 SCT M120 OVC 15 868/22/6/2724G43/914/PK WND 2944/08 PRESRR/ 28108 177/ 90205 90409 22 BOS SA 1651 M42 BKN 95 BKN 120 OVC 12 844/24/10/2630G36/907/SB01E46 WND 23V31 PK WND 2737/44 PRESRR BOS SA 1552 45 SCT E80 OVC 12 819/26/10/2726G31/900/SE02 PK WND 2938/22 PRESRR BOS SA 1451 25 SCT M70 OVC 8S- 787/24/12/2729G36/890/PK WND 2938/33 PRESRR/ 39907 99117 177/ 90409 BOS SP 1428 25 SCT E80 BKN 5S-BS 2823G33/886 BOS SA 1354 -X E25 BKN 80 OVC 2S-FBS 749/25/19/2723G35/879/S3 WND 23V33 PRESRR BOS SA 1255 -X M8 BKN 25 OVC 2S-FBS 707/29/25/3015G28/867/S3 PRESRR BOS SP 1200 -X M11 OVC 11/2S- 2117G24/857/R04RVR16V18 S4 BOS SA 1150 -X 11 SCT E15 OVC 11/2S- 670/33/29/2119G27/856/R04RVR16V24 S4/ 31404 15// 90409 32 20187 CHH RADAT DLAD BOS SP 1140 -X E19 OVC 11/2S- 2022G27/854/R04RVR24V60+ BOS SP 1133 M19 OVC 2S- 2020/854 BOS SP 1109 M19 OVC 5S- 2024G31/852 BOS SP 1059 M19 OVC 21/2S- 1929G35/851/VSBY SW-W 11/2 BOS SA 1050 M19 OVC 8S- 653/36/29/1932G41/851/IPE15 PK WND 1951/25 BOS SP 1017 M17 OVC 4S- 1929G38/849/IPE15 BOS SA 0950 E20 BKN 38 OVC 5S-IP- 653/37/34/1928G37/850/RESIPB38 PK WND 2038/27 BOS SP 0939 E20 BKN 38 OVC 5S-IP- 2028G35/850/IPB38 BOS SP 0933 E20 BKN 38 OVC 7R- 2028G38/850 BOS SA 0854 20 SCT E38 OVC 7R- 656/38/35/2021/851/ 64602 15// 90409 BOS SA 0750 20 SCT E38 OVC 7R- 665/41/37/2026G33/854/RB35/ 98000 BOS SP 0732 20 SCT M38 OVC 8 1915/855 BOS SP 0719 E20 BKN 40 OVC 8 1814/856/WSHFT 17 FEW STFRA 8 HND BOS SP 0704 E20 BKN 40 OVC 8 1213G18/857/WSHFT 03 FEW STFRA 8 HND PRESFR BOS SA 0650 E20 BKN 40 OVC 8 683/36/32/0612/859/FEW STFRA 8 HND BOS SP 0624 8 SCT E20 BKN 40 OVC 8 0310/862 BOS SA 0550 8 SCT 28 SCT E40 OVC 8 702/33/30/0410G17/865/CIG RGD ZRE31 PRES UNSTDY/ 72972 15// 90410 36 BOS SP 0532 8 SCT 28 SCT E40 OVC 7 0414G22/865/ZRE31 CIG RGD BOS SP 0515 28 SCT E40 OVC 5ZR-F 0414G24/866/FEW STFRA 8 HND CIG RGD PCPN VRY LGT BOS SA 0450 8 SCT M28 OVC 3ZR-F 709/32/30/0212G25/867/CIG RGD REZRB38 BOS SP 0433 8 SCT M28 OVC 4R-F 0219G32/868/CIG RGD BOS SA 0350 M8 BKN 17 BKN 70 OVC 5R-F 714/35/32/0118G26/869/CIG RGD PCPN VRY LGT BOS SA 0254 M8 BKN 17 OVC 5R-F 731/36/32/0123G36/874/CIG RGD WND 31V06/ 79968 99102 17// 90410 BOS SP 0223 M8 BKN 16 OVC 6R-F 0318G30/874/CIG RGD PCPN VRY LGT PRESFR BOS SA 0154 M7 BKN 15 OVC 21/2R-F 746/36/33/0328G38/878/R04RVR35 SFC VSBY 3 CIG RGD R- OCNLY R PK WND 0338/53 PRESFR BOS SP 0133 M7 BKN 15 OVC 2RF 0123G34/882/R04RVR28V35 CIG RGD R OCNLY R- WND 35V06 BOS SA 0051 -X M5 OVC 1R-F 802/35/33/0428G36/894/R04RVR08V10 F5 TE18 MOVD N RB22IPSE34 PK WND 0551/2356 PRESFR SNOINCR 1/1/12 BOS SP 0038 -X M5 OVC 1R-F 0527G40/893/R04RVR06V08 F5 IPE34 PRESFR BOS SP 0024 W5 X 1/2R-IPS-BS 0528G44/894/R04RVR16V24 DRFTG SNW PRESFR BOS SP 0019 W5 X 1/4IP+S-BS 0530G44/896/R04RVR12V24 TE18 MOVD N DRFTG SNW PRESFR BOS SP 2359 W5 X 1/4T+IP+S-BS 0537G51/905/R04RVR12V22 TB57 W MOVG N OCNL LTGIC DRFTG SNW PRES UNSTDY BOS SA 2350 W5 X 1/4IPS-BS 832/33/32/0638G49/903/R04RVR12V16 TE20 MOVD N IPB03 DRFTG SNW PK WND 0654/2253 PRESFR SNOINCR 1/11/12/ 79907 ONE 99163 90412 BOS SP 2323 W5 X 1/4SIPBS 0632G49/912/R04RVR12 TE22 MOVD N DRFTG SNW PRESFR BOS SP COR 2304 W1 X 1/4T+SIPBS 0641G50/914/R04RVR06-V12 T OVHD-NW MOVG N OCNL LTGIC IPB03 DRFTG SNOW PRESFR BOS SP 2304 W1 X 1/4TSIPBS 0641G50/914/R04RVR06-V12 T OVHD-NW MOVG N OCNL LTGIC IPB03 DRFTG SNW PRESFR BOS RS 2250 W0 X 0TS+BS 875/31/31/0647G62/916/R04RVR06-V06 TB50 SW MOVG N OCNL LTGIC DRFTG SNW PK WND 0670/33 PRESFR SNOINCR 3/11/12 BOS SA 2150 W1 X 0S+BS 942/30/30/0643G52/936/R04RVR08V10 DRFTG SNW PK WND 0661/06 PRESFR SNOINCR 3/8/9 BOS SP 2113 W1 X 0S+BS 0646G61/946/R04RVR08V10 PRESFR BOS SA 2054 W5 X 1/16S+BS 995/30/29/0737G50/951/R04RVR10V14 DRFTG SNW PK WND 0752/16 PRESFR SNOINCR 2/5/6/ 79940 99146 90406 BOS SA 1950 W5 X 1/16S+BS 044/31/29/0733G41/966/R04RVR08V12 DRFTG SNW PK WND 0743/17 PRESFR SNOINCR 2/3/4 BOS SP 1941 W5 X 1/8S+BS 0733G39/968/R04RVR08V14 DRFTG SNW PRESFR BOS SP 1926 W6 X 1/4S+BS 0730G43/971/R04RVR12V22 DRFTG SNW PRESFR BOS SA 1852 W5 X 1/8S+BS 095/31/29/0830G42/981/R04RVR18V24 DRFTG SNW PK WND 0842/43 PRESFR SNOINCR 1/1/2 BOS SP 1839 W5 X 1/4S+BS 0830G39/983/R04RVR14V20 DRFTG SNW PRESFR BOS SP 1823 -X E5 OVC 1/2SBS 0828G34/987/R04RVR18V22 S8 PRESFR BOS SP 1804 -X M5 OVC 1/2SBS 0829G36/992/R04RVR16V26 S8 PRESFR BOS RS 1750 -X M5 OVC 3/4S-BS 141/32/29/0824G29/995/R04RVR30V35 S8 PRESFR/ 77304 15// 90401 27 BOS SP 1717 -X E9 OVC 3/4S- 0924/998/R04RVR30V40 S7 PRESFR BOS SA 1650 -X M15 OVC 1VS- 161/32/27/0821/001/R04RVR40V55 VSBY 3/4V11/2 S5 PRESFR BOS SP 1611 -X E15 OVC 1S- 1019G25/007/R04RVR35V60+ S5 BOS SA 1550 E32 BKN 90 OVC 3S- 188/33/22/1018/009/PRESFR BOS SA 1450 M38 BKN 90 OVC 12S- 213/33/18/1017/016/SB28/ 83000 157/ BOS SA 1350 E55 OVC 15 227/33/17/1112/020/VIRGA OVHD BOS SA 1250 70 SCT E120 OVC 15 235/32/14/1207/023/VIRGA SW-OVHD CHH RADAT ZERO BOS SA 1150 70 SCT E120 OVC 15 244/31/14/1407/025/VIRGA S-SW/ 610 107/ 90401 27 CHH RADAT DLAD

I know we're all basically going to flip to rain eventually, but this seems like it's flying in under the radar. HRRR and RRFS seem pretty robust in keeping cold locked in for longer. Might be a pretty good event in CNE and NNE.

I was wrong. The Ravens only need a 17 minute drive.

Wow, they really suck.

Here is some obs strings in the pre-METAR format (SAO) that I saved in real-time back in the day. I'll post more separately on the same thread w/ time. The SAO format is more concise than METAR, and some differences. The key ones I will note here: X means sky obscured. -X mean sky partially obscured. W is vertical visibility. Since these are pre-ASOS/AWOS, they are manually-taken obs which i kind of miss b/c you could better quantify what was going on, esp. in snowstorms b/c of the sky obscuration and viability. ASOS/AWOS do not report anything less than 1/4 mi and does odd things w/ sky obscurations at times. It seem less impressive than manual obs. Visibility for manually-taken obs would go lower than 1/4 mi and get reported in 1/8 and 1/16 incitements when below a mi. And you could get zero visibility reported, so you really knew when it absolutely pounding S+! SNINCR was reported as SNOINCR x/y/z - x means the last hr, y is the amount since the last synoptic hr, and z is SOG. SOG is reported 904xx. 24 hr pcpn is a 2xxxx group. Obs start w/ the earlier at the bottom, and latest at the top. Any questions, please ask. BANTER time for CoastalWx! NORLUN for PWM Mar 1992 21-MAR-92 PWM RS 1153 29 SCT M55 OVC 7 132/27/25/0208/992/SE46/ 21271 15// 90411 25 20079 RADAT ZERO PWM SP 1129 -X M8 BKN 20 OVC 11/2S- 0507/991/S4 PWM SP 1116 -X M3 OVC 1/2S 0209/991/S7 PWM RS 1052 W1 X 3/8S 127/27/25/0309/990 PWM SP 1037 -X M1 OVC 1/2S 0308/990/S5 PWM SP 1008 M14 BKN 27 OVC 1S- 0307/989 PWM SP 0953 -X M1 OVC 5/16S 0310/989/S8 SNOINCR 4/10/11 PWM SP 0858 W0 X 1/16S+ 0112/988 PWM SA 0851 W0 X 1/8S+ 120/28/27/0109/988/SNOINCR 3/7/7 WND SHFT 0757/ 20749 90407 PWM SP 0834 W1 X 1/8S+ 0505/988 PWM SP 0812 -X M2 OVC 1/8S+ 0707/987/S8 PWM SP 0758 W0 X 1/16S+ 0406/987/WND SHFT 57 PWM SA 0752 W0 X 1/8S+ 117/28/27/3412/987/SNOINCR 3/4/4/ 98661 PWM SP 0702 -X M2 OVC 13/4S- 3208/987/S3 PWM RS 0650 M7 BKN 20 OVC 21/2S- 113/30/27/3204/986/GRDL WND SHFT PWM RS 0550 10 SCT M21 OVC 3S- 113/30/27/1308/986/ 60308 15// 90401 35 PWM SP 0529 10 SCT M17 OVC 2S- 1309/986 PWM SP 0504 -X 7 SCT M19 OVC 11/2S- 1410/986/S2 PWM RS 0451 -X M7 BKN 20 OVC 11/2S- 113/30/28/1408/986/S2 PWM SP 0438 7 SCT M19 OVC 3S- 1510/986 PWM SP 0415 5 SCT M13 OVC 4S- 1408/986 PWM SP 0404 -X M5 BKN 8 OVC 4S- 1406/986/S1 PWM RS 0352 -X M7 BKN 21 OVC 3S- 113/30/28/1506/986/S1 SNOINCR 1/1/1 PWM SP 0336 -X M8 BKN 27 OVC 2S- 1607/986/S2 PWM SP 0329 -X 8 SCT M27 OVC 1S- 1607/987/S2 PWM SP 0312 -X M7 OVC 1/2S 1706/987/S6 PWM SP 0306 -X M17 OVC 2S- 1706/987/S2 PWM SA 0252 M27 BKN 31 OVC 8S- 117/30/26/1807/987/SB0148E03B14/ 00300 15// PWM SP 0229 21 SCT M27 OVC 10SW- 1707/988/PCPN VRY LGT PWM RS 0153 M30 BKN 40 OVC 15SW- 118/31/22/1708/988/SB48 PWM SA 0051 M28 OVC 15 115/31/21/1508/987 PWM SA 2350 M29 BKN 60 OVC 15 113/31/20/1609/986/BINOVC OVHD/ 217 15// 35 RADAT ZERO NORLUN for CHH Feb 1993 19-FEB-93 CHH SA 2045 OVC 2SW- 21/M/0214G20/997 CHH SA 1955 OVC 1SW-BS 22/M/3415G20/996/ 90418 CHH SA 1855 OVC 1BS 22/M/3415G22/995/ 90418 CHH SA 1755 X 1/16SW+BS 22/21/3415G26/995/ SNOINCR 2/9/18 CHH SA 1655 X 1/4S-BS 25/M/0118G26/994/ 90416 CHH SA 1550 X 1/2SBS 24/M/0318G25/994/ SNOINCR 1/3/16 CHH SA 1450 X 3/4S- 25/M/0115/993 CHH SA 1345 W0X 0S+ 24/M/3415G22/992/ SNOINCR 2/2/15 CHH SA 1245 X 1/8S+BS 23/M/3515G25/991/1/4/13 SNOW CHH SA 1145 X 1/16S+ 24/M/3513/985/9 INCHES -4 INCHES LAST HR. CHH SA 1045 X 1/4S+ 24/M/3215G25/985 CHH SA 0945 OVC 1/2S- 24/M/3213G26/985 CHH SA 0845 OVC 1S- 24/M/3513/985 CHH SA 0745 OVC 3S- 26/M/3513/985 CHH SA 0545 BKN 7 26/M/0205/984