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I'm a little worried about some models running on the north end of the envelope we've seen, I think at this point the fail case for 95 is temps come in a tad high and a slightly overamped storm screws us with too much rain in the early morning to get much. Fingers crossed we see the GFS or something like it pan out...

Nice sounding in the band as it starts cranking around 1am in @mappyland

I told y'all in my post last night it was happening and why. It has been incremental over several runs as guidance has been getting a better handle on the h5 vorticity interactions.

I think you get 3" of snow from this.

Its more that Scandinavian block is more SW on some ensembles now. Unfortunately the WPO/EPO the last couple of cycles are becoming unfavorable again but thats also out at D14-16 so not highly confident in any of the changes

Weenie run for Baltimore!

I honestly don’t remember the last December snow for me outside some snow showers or like 1” or whatever. I was in Westminster before this past year.

Nantucket Sleigh Ride... sounds like what they must call coke and lsd after hearing that

Fwiw, nooner GFS continues the westward tick in qpf for LSV. Not much more room for further adjustments, but I81 and points SE should have plows down (cause ya know they plow 1/4" or greater). Hoping for another HH tick west to bring Carlisle and Blizz into the good stuff as well.

There is another one coming Keep trolling

I would agree. Someone may be confused, but get an inch or two on cold roads, the general SEVERE LACK of driving skill by many now and the holiday season warrants advisories if this keeps looking like current guidance

I'll take that for 2000 alex!!!

That weenie band just south of DVN going to miss you?

Some personal MBY stats. Biggest December snowfall since 2009 is 3.3", which happened in both 2017 and 2020. Think I got a puncher's chance to top that.

Pretty cool how there's literally no surface reflection with this clipper. All the snow is driven by mid-upper level jet dynamics and frontogenesis.

Hey I don’t use a computer, I use my phone so ha! Lol.

Looking a lil bit more like an actual storm there, unless I'm seeing things it looks like a lil bit of a coastal signal there compared to 06z...

I think almost everyone sees an inch or 2. Mid shore 2-3, maybe 4 in a few spots. Upper and N DE there might be some 5-6" amounts. 12z GFS is nice- Juiced up quite a bit.

Gonna be a lot of “surprised” posts tomorrow morning

LOL exactly. I remember one storm in 1987 where we had 10 inches. We were in such a terrible winter stretch that it seems like 3 feet. CC aside, hopefully the pattern continues to evolve and we get better flow characteristics or just better luck as we move forward.

12z GFS now has a surface low off the Jersey coast, which allows precip to fill in better. Looks like 0.5" QPF line bumps back from Delaware to the Harford/Cecil County line.

That 4 run loop of the gfs is sweet. Look at the QPF max increasing as well on the east side out towards NJ. In general, slightly slower, more amplified system and some great rates in the main bands.

Wasn’t talking about 50 miles north haha just meant the whole thing keeps backing up to the nw each run.

Not sure how much globals matter at this point, but the 12z GFS has finally fully caught on and has a nice solid 3-6” storm for this entire subforum.