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Even though the CFS is currently too cool in Nino 1+2, the current seasonal model update still has an east based El Niño into next July with strong WWBs continuing.

You're not wrong, but there's a lot more continuous, preserved forest in northern new england than in southern new england. A lot of the forest in Rhode Island is wild regrowth over abandoned farm land. I've found the variety and quality of the foliage better in NNE with better viewing points due to elevation - just my opinion. You are absolutely right that there is great spots to see foliage all over NE though, and you don't need to take a trip up north to find it.

Impressive heavy rain band overnight. More here (parts of Triad area) than I was expecting, but will take it.

Good rain event in Charlottesville with over 2.1 inches in the city with heavy rain overhead. In NOVA for the weekend after seeing Maybe Happy Ending with my family yesterday and have just passed 1 inch of rain.

I cannot remember the last time we got such a wonderful prolonged rain event. We ended up with a much-needed soaking rain that added up to a total of 3.34”. Thank you God!

I look forward to the county telling me that water restrictions need to remain in place next week

Getting smoked one final time

I'm pretty sure That I started earlier than you. I was surprised when I got up at 6am that .50 had already fallen.

Euro says.. "no"

1.12 so far in Purcellville

1.70

This band coming through Catawba County right now means business. Just went from 3 inches to 4 inches in the past 25 minutes.

Yeah. The rain sound is thought i was hearing was wind. Pretty much nothing here yet. .19. Looks like our area will fall short.

Pouring here in Thurmont for Colorfest. Not a good day to walk around town.

Again we are roughly about a month and a half earlier than in 1997/98

October is continuing the seasonal model error for at least one month out. The seasonal models from early September had the typical -EPO October El Nino ridge near Alaska and NW Canada.This has been the seasonal model forecast error since May. The month to date has the 500mb ridge shifted further south over the CONUS with lower heights near Alaska. The next week will add to this pattern lowering heights more near Alaska and maintaining the CONUS ridge. This will be the furthest south ridge position for an El Nino October even when just using the 1972,1982,1997,2015, and 2023 super composite. Month to date Forecast through October 19th October forecast issued in early September October El Niño composite

The early morning band that went through McDowell county was intense.

I was just checking your station, and I saw that. You got more than twice what I got so far. I'm only at .38" as I type this. Not sure if it's because you got under some heavier rain, it started earlier, or perhaps both.

1.54

34.9° OVC

Yeah rain shield seems much raggedier on the SE side than forecast. 0.35” here so far

.83 rain so far today.