All Activity

My Point and Click says 60% of thunderstorm this afternoon in here 21057... HRRR says not so fast and everyone basically gets nothing.

180 WTNT45 KNHC 141434 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 14 2025 Satellite imagery shows that Erin has become a little better organized this morning, with the formation of a ragged central dense overcast with some outer banding in the northwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have increased a little during the past 6 h and are now in the 40-55 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt. Erin will be in an environment of light-to-moderate easterly vertical shear and moving over increasing sea surface temperatures during the next 48 h. This should allow a faster rate of intensification during this time, and Erin is now forecast to become a hurricane by 24 h. The environment becomes less conducive after 48 h, with the global models forecast northwesterly shear over the cyclone as a large upper-level anticyclone develops to the west. Despite this forecast shear, the global and regional hurricane models forecast intensification to continue, although at a slower rate than during the first 48 h. Based on these forecasts, the new intensity forecast shows steady intensification through 48 h, followed by a slower rate of development during the remainder of the forecast period. The new forecast is near the intensity consensus, and there is guidance that suggests the possibility Erin could be stronger than currently forecast. The initial motion is now 275/15. The storm continues to be steered by a subtropical ridge to the north, and this ridge should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward during the next three days. After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken or break due to the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies over the northeastern United States. This evolution should lead to Erin turning toward the northwest or north-northwest during the remainder of the forecast period, although there is significant spread in the guidance on just how sharp this turn will be. The new forecast track is south of the consensus models through 48 h and then lies near the consensus models thereafter. Due to the spread in the track guidance by 120 h and beyond, there is still a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and tropical-storm force winds could occur in portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend as the core of Erin passes north of those islands. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Erin. 2. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing. As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.4N 49.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 16.9N 51.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 17.8N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 18.6N 57.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 19.4N 60.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 20.3N 63.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 21.3N 65.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 23.5N 68.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 26.5N 69.8W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Patel

I hear you. I can hold off until labor day but then im done mentally with summer.

At least last nights rain cleared out the humidity.

Maybe just my own false perception but it seems August has been particularly bad for severe the last several years? Growing up in the 70’s/80’s it didn’t seem like that? I vividly remember some spectacular events in those days

This doesn't mean you should book 70" of snowfall at LGA.....but it is what it is. The PNA should be just south of neutral in the DM mean.

I think I see why. Looking at the upper left of each plot, the jet is further north in the new vs old. So instead of buckling southward into western US, it goes over the top of NW Canada promoting a ridge there. Big changes downstream.

And I agree, as it was strongly positive last year, but I don't think it will be strongly negative this season.

I’d go even lower, but I guess I’d just preach caution until recon has had a chance to sample Erin and the surrounding environment before feeling too confident in the exact details of the recurve.

Its a dewey cox kinda day out there

Picked up 0.41 inches of rain yesterday. Just a tad muggy out this morning!

79 / 73 clearing working down N - W / NW- SE

Looking at @frd's 6-10 day outlook, which shows most of the Mountaineer State 2 to 5F above recent climatological normals (with the exception of a small portion of the Eastern panhandle), I think the temperatures should be sufficiently high to push the West Virginia statewide mean high enough to at least tie, if not break, the record for hottest summer. That gets us to August 24 - the question then becomes whether that can hold for the final week. This is a record that was first set 125 years ago (albeit tied in 2010)! Stay tuned!

Don’t worry the trough will be there whenever tropical reaches the SW Atlantic.

why does this frog do this all the time? if 98L gets named it repeats the same pattern

probably gonna be a poundshop erin (dollar store for yous lot)

This is convectively active this morning. The SW Gulf often over-performs with regard to the models.

The last two UKMET runs also have this followup to Erin.

I'm ready for fall

Update on summertime temperatures: Both Virginia and West Virginia saw their second hottest June-July period on record. Virginia had a gridded mean of 76.6F, second only to 2010's mean of 77.0F. At West Virginia, the two-month mean finished at 73.8F, second only to 1934. Incredibly since 1952, only one June-July came within 1F of that value (and only barely). The mean in 2010 was 72.9F, or 0.9F cooler than this year. August has started MUCH colder. My best estimate for the current mean is 71.5F in Virginia and 70.7F in West Virginia. Very rare for the two states to have such similar mean temperatures. West Virginia is usually decidedly colder on average. The Virginia value if it were to hold would match 1986 for 13th coldest August on record. West Virginia's implied mean is already in the warmer half of all Augusts. If these values were to hold, Virginia's summer mean would finish at 74.9F (13th hottest), while West Virginia's summer mean would finish at 72.8F (tied for 4th hottest). We can safely rule out a record hot summer for Virginia; however, a top 10 hottest summer is still very much possible. Currently, there is a 3-way tie for 10th place between 1952, 2002 & 2005. August would probably need to finish around 72.1F or higher for a top 10 summer. Now, the mean of 72.8F for West Virginia falls just 0.2F shy of the current record hot summer (1900 & 2010, both at 73.0F). To tie those years, we would need to see August finish around 71.3F. To break them, around 71.6F. To put that into perspective, 71.3F is the 1991-2020 mean, so West Virginia would only need to have a normal August (based on most recent climatology) to tie the record.

Mark, is that you????

sod off

Received .36" in late afternoon T-Shower. I guess a small slice of pie is better than no slice at all.