All Activity

The point is a big chunk of the big systems that take a favorable track for us are Miller b and transfer energy to the coast. Not all, but a lot.

Yea, I just think it's wise to modulate expectations based on past experiences with systems of this ilk, rather than every permutation of model consensus. I'm annoyed that I caved on first call and had everything so far SW instead of sticking to m y guns it would move north.

Nice to wake up seeing overnight guidance hold and come in a bit more robust in some cases. Pretty impressing fronto being modeled as has been discussed. 06Z NAM hung over and had a dirty Bloody Mary this AM.

And that’s a SNE special in that depiction.

Wow....man, that is far north-

Map? That was one of the more generous models yesterday

Most likely not…but this system has grown in size /coverage quite a bit from the earlier ideas.

No euro probably has the right idea Large 4-8” swath call it a day.

Columbia, east side: 5:45am 31.1° 6:45am 30.2°

I still would pin hopes to many double-digit totals....

Probably bands from ORH to you...a rough rule of thumb is that the bending tends to follow the QPG gradient...

Well to be fair…this has morphed into something much bigger than it was a day or two ago…this has a pretty good sized qpf shield now, which was not being modeled just two days ago.

Thank you for the explanation. Never surprised by the sleet mixing in

don't. know what's gonna happen but i do know sleet is a persistent little mother, and often rears its head well before we want. that said, there is disagreement even among the pros how much of this will happen and when. so let's just let this one ride and hope we can get some good season's greetings photos for next year's card....got a daughter commuting to somerset in her 2009 impala, her first time working with snow on the way; hope she can leave work early before 287 is a mess; retired now, and worry about loved ones.....be safe all, and let's hope for some wintry wonderland photo ops. we get enough winters without them....

In an overrunning driven storm like this? Always. I’m thinking it’s less than 50-50 that my area goes to sleet but wouldn’t shock me if it happened. NAM may be too warm in the mid levels but I’m confident it’s closer to right than the colder models.

God, with the way things have gone this decade, this will feel like a KU. Congrats you princes of New England!

Euro is not as generous

There is no such thing as a consistent top performer. Most would consider the ECMWF and GFS as leading the pack, but neither one is a consistent winner.

Are you concerned for the inevitable “warm nose” that always seems to catch meteorologists off guard?

Newest HRRR looks nice to me, heaviest banding right through nyc metro.

Glad to share the wealth it’s more fun this way

I like your amounts although I would just go 4-8 inches.

This storm will be the test for whether they can finally discontinue the NAM. The NAM was the only model which could see the warm nose at 850 mb to 750 mb. None of the other models were very good at this. The NAM has sleet mixing in around EWR-NYC-LGA-JFK. But keeps it all snow from Suffolk NW back into SW CT and interior SE NY. So out of respect for the NAM, I will go 3-5” around EWR-NYC-LGA-JFK and 5-8” Northern Nassau to Suffolk.

20 here.

17 degrees