All Activity

Yep gonna be theme of winter

12z Euro sends the storm into Maine..

90 in Culpepper, 91 Warrenton, 88 IAD, 90 RIC

90 on my PWS too. So over it. Cant wait for Saturday.

They need to win more games now so it hurts worse when they lose in some kind of epic fashion in January. Buffalo falls into this category also. #cursedfranchises

AI models like it just something to watch for now

Screamer

Now who just mentioned that yesterday

Models backing off cold this weekend. Lets keep that going through winter.

90.4 at my PWS right now

Got to 78 earlier but have had a few rain showers move thru and it’s been cloudy, 74 currently

71/64 here today, last weekend of fall baseball for my boys this weekend on Saturday both have double headers, so that outta be interesting. Last weekend we were in westerly for a DH and weather was awesome just miles from misquamicut, great games, now basketball starts next week.

Euro AI developing the same storm off the Mid Atlantic coast as the Icon now.. might be worth watching

So after a good part of the day being cloudy there is now clearing to almost full sun. Temps had been staying in the lower 80's but are starting to rise again. Currently 84.

It's cloudy but clearing here, nice cool breeze as well. It's not that bad

78 for high here.

Helps the cold air source Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Do you mean "largest TC tornado outbreak in the states history? B/c you have non-TC events like this. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110416_rpts.html I count 14 NC tors from the 2020 Isaias.

No 90s today would be a victory.

Very strong El Nino does not guarantee a big Atlantic rebound TC season the next. 1983 is the lowest ACE season in the satellite era. 1992 was sig below avg ACE (76) and had only one major HU. Yes, that was Andrew, but one high-impact landfall does not change the overall Atlantic season as to historical avg. Outside of very strong El Nino? 1977 was weak El Nino and ACE of 25 - the 2nd lowest ACE in the satellite era. 1978 ACE (neutral ENSO) was 63. 2013 ACE was only 36 (neutral ENSO) and 2014 ACE (weak El Nino) was 67. Also, very strong El Nino is not always followed by La Nina. 1991 very strong El Nino was followed by weak El Nino 1992. Finally, El Nino and La Nina are not just polar opposites due to the non-linear responses of the ocean. And there are no less than a dozen other atmospheric oscillations going on around the globe at the same time, all interacting and in various states.

85 at DCA, 87 IAD, 88 BWI at 1pm... lots of 89s around too at other reporting stations

How does the ChescoWx East Nantmeal forecast stack up against the National Weather Service? After 7 weeks of scoring every forecast against what actually happened, the temperature results are pretty clear! Since August 22 we have verified 50 days and about 2,800 high and low temperature forecasts, each one matched up against the NWS forecast for the same day issued at the same time. ChescoWx was closer on temperatures on 45 of the 50 days. The NWS was closer on 4 and 1 was dead even. The typical ChescoWx miss was about 1.8 degrees. The typical NWS miss was about 3.0 degrees. For tomorrow's forecast the gap is widest... about 1 degree for ChescoWx vs about 2.5 degrees for the NWS. The edge holds out through day 6 and the two are basically even by day 7. About 8 in 10 ChescoWx forecasts landed within 3 degrees of the actual temperature vs about 6 in 10 for the NWS. Much of the NWS gap is a warm lean on daytime highs of about 3 degrees in our backyard. Rainfall is a different story. On the 10 days with measurable rain the NWS did a bit better, and both forecasts badly missed our two biggest rain events (1.66" on September 3 and 2.42" on October 11). Rain is where we are focused on improving next. Fair caveat... 50 days of late summer and early fall is a start, not a final verdict. We will keep scoring every forecast through the winter, and snow will be the real test! The live scorecard is on the Current Weather page here: https://chescowx.com/current-weather/ Let me know if any questions!

How does the ChescoWx East Nantmeal forecast stack up against the National Weather Service? After 7 weeks of scoring every forecast against what actually happened, the temperature results are pretty clear! Since August 22 we have verified 50 days and about 2,800 high and low temperature forecasts, each one matched up against the NWS forecast for the same day issued at the same time. ChescoWx was closer on temperatures on 45 of the 50 days. The NWS was closer on 4 and 1 was dead even. The typical ChescoWx miss was about 1.8 degrees. The typical NWS miss was about 3.0 degrees. For tomorrow's forecast the gap is widest... about 1 degree for ChescoWx vs about 2.5 degrees for the NWS. The edge holds out through day 6 and the two are basically even by day 7. About 8 in 10 ChescoWx forecasts landed within 3 degrees of the actual temperature vs about 6 in 10 for the NWS. Much of the NWS gap is a warm lean on daytime highs of about 3 degrees in our backyard. Rainfall is a different story. On the 10 days with measurable rain the NWS did a bit better, and both forecasts badly missed our two biggest rain events (1.66" on September 3 and 2.42" on October 11). Rain is where we are focused on improving next. Fair caveat... 50 days of late summer and early fall is a start, not a final verdict. We will keep scoring every forecast through the winter, and snow will be the real test! The live scorecard is on the Current Weather page here: https://chescowx.com/current-weather/ Let me know if any questions!