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Models don't usually correct significantly when there is a PNA projected to be -2 to -3 for an extended period of time. Sometimes you will trend toward a better polar orientation (more -EPO), but that doesn't favor deep cold/snow, it just mutes the warmup.

f the Euro

Latest Lwx map now adv are up

In terminator we trust…”the snow will be baaack!”

Looks like WWA hoisted for you so thats a start! I'd rather be on the N side of the QPF axis. S side is gonna be a brutal cut off.

It would be pretty amusing if we come out of the cold period that was hyped up quite a bit with very little snow and then find a way to squeeze a legit snowstorm into this upcoming pattern

After bottoming out to 15 earlier, up to 21 now (in line with model/forecast).

Shows us getting smoked probably so had to challenge the run and have the refs review

Its a tough call period. Banding could be an issue as the S Mountain area favors that the last few years. I got nearly 16 inches a few years ago while other got less than 6 inches. Either way it goes, the snow will immediately stick given given how cold it is right now. The big tell, is how cold and dry it is right now 14 degrees at my house with dew points in the single digits. That is a hell of lot of dry air to overcome in this typical alberta clipper. I expect a lot of virga. That is why this event is a wait and see game if the moisture gets more involved with this clipper before the shortwave digs in off the coast.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1239 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 DCZ001-MDZ005-006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ053-054-131345- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0028.251214T0100Z-251214T1200Z/ District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- 1239 AM EST Sat Dec 13 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 1 and 3 inches. Localized totals of 4 to 5 inches are possible, especially across Baltimore and northeastern Maryland. * WHERE...Washington DC, and portions of central and northern Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation may briefly start as rain in some locations this evening but quickly turn to snow. A narrow band of heavier snow may develop during the late evening and overnight which could produce more rapid accumulations and visibility less than one half mile. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$

Yeah. Probably actually showed snow in the MA.

Delayed due to a data issue. Not worth staying up for

Euro dead on SV too

Advisories up. Yoda slacking fr

The Euro doesn't wanna run on wxbell or pivotal lol

0z GFS christmas miracle... they sniff the big ones out early lol

If we get 5” of snow, I’ll streak around my apt complex.

0z model suite...quit the changes. GFS got on board with strat warming event that clearly is the cause for the bridge block late in run as it couples with troposphere: 10mb 50mb I'd say that was the reason the 18z AI -Euro model had a massive bridge blocking:

I don't think JB moves NG. There is a trend in models tonight for the N. Pacific ridge to be more -EPO. Let's see how that goes, it is the seasonal trend since Aug/Sept. If models keeping progressing from -PNA to -EPO this weekend, NG may open up on Sunday.

Lol

475dm north of New Foundland/570dm in Alaska, it's the 13/14, 14/15 pattern.

JB coming out with the 1985 analog. What a joke... IIRC, it was something like -20F with a -50F windchill at Cleveland. There is zero chance of that happening. Must be trying to bail out a buddy who's long $NG.

As of yesterday morning, we’d already picked up 7 to 8 inches of snow in the valley from our most recent clipper, and Bolton Valley was reporting 8 inches in the past 48 hours. So, consistent with what PF had mentioned, it didn’t seem like there wasn’t a huge elevation gradient for accumulations up to that point in the storm. We were actually in a snowfall lull at that point – the front side of the storm had wound down, but the back side precipitation was quickly moving into the area. Indeed, as I ascended the Bolton Valley Access Road in the morning, I drove right up into heavy snowfall as the first bands of snow from the back side of the storm were hitting the mountain. I geared up for a tour at the Timberline Base amidst huge flakes of snow falling in the range of 1 to 2 inches/hour. Clothing and gear were getting covered so fast that I was constantly having to shake off the snow. During my previous outing on Monday, I’d found powder depths of roughly 8-12” around 1,500’ at the Timberline Base and 12-16” up near the 2,500’ level. Yesterday I’d say you could tack on a couple more inches to those general powder depths. Even though a lot more snow fell than that, my liquid analyses revealed that we had a solid period of 10-11% H2O snow during the day on Wednesday with all those small flakes, so that would have compressed the existing powder a bit. Fortunately, the density of the snow had dropped down to around 5-6% H2O by Wednesday night, so if there had been any perturbing of the powder grading with that denser snow, it had been largely restored by Thursday morning. Coinciding with that denser snow that fell Wednesday, this most recent storm did have the advantage of bringing more liquid equivalent to the snowpack. Whereas our previous Clipper brough a bit more than a quarter of an inch of liquid equivalent here at our site, this one had already brough a half inch as of yesterday morning, which would likely mean that between a half inch and an inch of liquid equivalent fell in the mountains. So although the powder skiing yesterday wasn’t quite as light and airy as it was on Monday, it was still right-side-up, and the added liquid equivalent more than made up for it with the ability to charge a bit harder on steeper terrain.

Long range gfs is loltastic. Blasting on Christmas than again 3 days later.