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I’m not sure what a start warming in early November really buys us. It will probably restrengthen after and not sure it will propagate downward?

Very windy run earlier with leaves flying . Mild too at 48 for the low

Still managed a pretty good frost this morning.

Yeah I have a lot of oaks here locally. Strong trees but ugly regarding foliage. I do have a couple on the property that change to red which is nice.

Impressive large eye that continues to warm. Deep surrounding band of coldest CTs. If you'll notice the geometric pattern within the low-level clouds in the eye, most likely the result of multiple rotating mesovorticies currently riding around the eyewall. I'd imagine this is Cat 5 bound again.

I'm looking forward to your input on a potential storm this winter.

I agree about oaks. There is a hillside on I-89 here just before you get to the Waterbury exit that is almost entirely oak and it’s so dull every year compared to what surrounds it.

Yesterday’s NOAA official relative weekly SSTa update for last week had this: note the 0.3 cooling in Nino 4 to -0.1 and that 3.4 stayed at +2.4: 07OCT2026 4.4 3.4 2.4 0.2 14OCT2026 4.4 3.5 2.4 -0.1 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

As usual, the foliage around here varies with random species of trees. I thought the maples this year looked great, better than I can remember for a while. The oaks are turning, but the Oaks always suck. I don’t know what species there are that turn this vibrant, yellow, maybe Hickory? But those have been bright this year.

How’s Chief Wiggum’s coastal low doing?

Look like we have a long stretch of boredom coming up, AWT.

Milder morning with a bit of a breeze at 46.

We busted low last night. 32.5. Was expecting 39. Looks to be a cobalt blue sky day.

I believe you'll see less salt on the roads. You might have to put chains on the truck this winter. Yes, rock salt prices have significantly increased in Pennsylvania. Recent reports indicate that municipalities are facing sharp price hikes, with costs rising from approximately $88 per ton to around $160 per ton. This increase has prompted local governments to seek alternative suppliers and adjust their budgets accordingly. The surge in prices is attributed to various factors, including supply chain issues and increased demand during winter months And now this too: https://www.abc27.com/pennsylvania/experts-show-impact-of-road-salt-on-pa-waterways/

32 for the low this morning. Bumped the heat on…63in the house. Was away for the day yesterday.

32 this morning.

I posted this yesterday. Keep up.

43 when I left the house. Our perfect week marches on.

Just remember that a weaker SPV was also a feature with the 1997-1998 event. There was also an impressive area of stratospheric warmth above the Urals to Barents region. It’s the overpowering Pacific which is the main feature when east based El Niños get this strong. So it’s not uncommon to see this during super El Niño events as we also had something similar with the weaker 2023-2024 super El Niño.

Agree. Said it yesterday, El Niño aside, IMO (could be wrong of course), the other antecedent/background conditions; strong +QBO, now downwelled into the bottom of the stratosphere, descending solar off last year’s max, high geomag, +IOD are all hostile to SSWEs and a very weak SPV this winter. Going to have to wait and see what happens. The fact that we actually have people hyping to borderline hysteria on twitter right now that strat warmings never happen during El Niños is completely laughable and asinine. But when you look at which accounts are doing it, it makes perfect sense….

I saw it on Twitter yesterday but someone was showing the analog mean strat temps during super ninos (which is only 4 examples) and the euro seasonal. Analog mean had a warming in early Feb that propagated down by March. Euro seasonal had a similar pattern but about 1 month earlier. A -AO through Feb would be pretty good for us combined with generally more favorable snow conditions for Nino Febs.

You can see on days like today when the cooling influence of the offshore flow wanes we are right back to upper 60s to near 70° in spots.