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my musings were based on 0z/6z gfs and ens guidance rolled forward beyond 10/8.

I "suspect" we see the typical mid-late Nov cold snap which lasts into the last third of December, a BIG thaw, and maybe a return later in the winter of some cold. LR ext modeling is much less bullish on even minor cold shots for this upcoming winter - big SERs showing up on modeling. I just don't think the Nina is gonna be that strong. The CANSIPS can bust bigly at times. I do think late season heat typically signals a fairly major flip to cold at some point - like summer to winter within days. Nearly all modeling has a significant warm-up mid-winter.

I got just a T after sunrise yesterday. My total for Sept was a mere 1.04” vs 17.2” in August!

Yeah. It appears to be keying on the Nina with that Aleutian Ridge. ENSO is the highest percentage Driver the LR's incorporate.

The Plains was the coolest part of the CONUS this summer relative to the long term averages.

Yep. Hopefully not extreme warmth . Probably be more tropical mischief. Hopefully we get rain from that , if not could result in that extreme warmth. Typical first Freeze in Valley areas around here is the 10-15th. Use to be a bit earlier. If that off and on advertised mid month cold shot is not realized it's going to be late. Looking like a not so good foliage Season at my Local as the Leaves are dying and falling with no color orber than dark brown as if blight has hit them.

Probably the most significant pattern change we've seen in a while is on the horizon... We're going to replace the constant re-loading +EPO with a re-loading -EPO and -PNA. This will likely will lead to a more active weather pattern than we've seen (That's not hard to do) and more of an up/down temperature regime, with some shots of real fall conditions.

at a glance we're frosting in the interior in SNE's climo cold spots dunnite. should have no issues decoupling with DPs in the 35-40 range under gaping wound heat hemorrhaging sky. not sure if the DPs do that 7 pm bounce back

In 1963 we no fall. Average high temperatures in October for the month were a ridiculous 71.7, a plus 6 departure from Normal. It hit 87 on October 7th. In total 5 days were 80 or above and an insane 15 were 75. The mean high temperature was 4th highest all time. Our lows however were a negative 3.5 from normal at 42.5. The reason? Not only did we have the driest October on record, but it was also the single driest month ever, and still is, at 0.04". My dear weather nerds, what followed was pure beauty of snow starting December 10. Following is December to March snow 15.8 19.4 30.2 9.0 Sent from my SM-X210 using Tapatalk

Interesting, everything is shifting to January as February has been getting warmer at a more rapid rate.

the wind made it bad but now it's good no more wind

Three of my favorite summers in this list-- 1966, 1999, 1993. Why not 2002? 2022 was not hot in any memorable way though.

2022 wasn't that hot though 1999 definitely was, I have great memories of that wonderful summer!!

It was the wettest monsoon season in Phoenix since 2021 and biggest one- and two-day rainfalls since October 2018.

Also can vary quite a bit locally. According to that, CO just had our 11th warmest summer on record, but here on the Front Range, it was only slightly warmer than the 30 year average. Including September and May, it was one of the coolest warm seasons of the past 15 years, so it really did feel mild...even if it would have qualified as a very warm summer 40 years ago.

The GFS is waffling on a strong cold front mid-month. Sometimes it has it, others it doesn't. 0z had frost in the area by the 16th. 12z is torchy.

27.3F for a low here... not quite the coldest we've had, but close

This observation from the Phoenix NWS matches the recent study as to how quickly people normalize extreme weather. It’s one of the reasons that climate change is pretty far down on the list of priorities for many. Phoenix is still one of the fastest growing metro areas in the country. https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/how-quickly-we-normalize-extreme-weather The study, published Feb. 25 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, indicates that people have short memories when it comes to what they consider “normal” weather. On average, people base their idea of normal weather on what has happened in just the past two to eight years. This disconnect with the historical climate record may obscure the public’s perception of climate change. “There’s a risk that we’ll quickly normalize conditions we don’t want to normalize,” said lead author Frances C. Moore, an assistant professor in the UC Davis Department of Environmental Science and Policy. “We are experiencing conditions that are historically extreme, but they might not feel particularly unusual if we tend to forget what happened more than about five years ago.

Yuck. @Holston_River_Rambler, the big red ball over the Aleutians is there for three straight months. Let's hope the CANSIPS is wrong. Next month is the the one with the most skill. I don't like this at all. November looked good. October isn't a bad look, but I think it stays warm. @nrgjeff, if we are talking talking basketball....this is the equivalent of Kansas making the NIT, right?

70 degrees here and not a cloud in the sky. Great way to start October. I'm leaving right now for bow hunting for the first time this season. Perfect weather for it.

let it snow (in canada)

I thought for sure we were going to miss extended summer this year. Nope. October could well be VERY warm. That does likely set us up for a very sharp flip come November if past Nina years are any clue.

We would take this onshore flow in December/January Recording 2025-10-01 134409.mp4

Yes, this is what I mean. Keep the dry pattern going through Winter and come Spring we will be significantly below normal. Long ways to go but pattern has been rather persistent. If we get lots of suppression from high pressure to our north as we move through Fall and Winter it will keep the dry pattern going. Very possible.

And you're a Bengals fan. How in the hell are you not an alcoholic?