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@mitchnick @Ji @stormtracker a random thought about the AIFS and all guidance in general. Yes the AIFS will still bounce around at range with details. Exact track. Intensity. It’s not a miracle. It’s performing better than everything else. Take that fwiw. However, over the last 72 hours the thing it keeps bouncing back to is a hecs lol. It goes one way or another but it’s now spit out 5 hecs runs over 72 hours. This is the default it keeps coming back too. That’s important. It’s not some random fluke run. It’s shown up over and over. Doesn’t mean it’s the only solution. But it’s not a crazy outlier permutation it’s a real possibility or at least AIFS things so. In general this is true also. Maybe not hecs but secs/MECS the guidance bounces bit keeps coming back to snow! There was only one other time this winter when the preponderance of evidence was for a storm. Jan 25. All the others we were rooting for the long shot permutations not the most likely. Some were decent shots. 30% maybe 40% but none had a preponderance suggesting yes this is happening. Thats it. That’s the observation. Doesn’t mean we snow. I do think this is our best shot of the season other than Jan 25 from 5 days out.

Exactly, after this, it's basically March and we know what that means. Time to go all-in if you have not pushed all of your chips in yet.

This is the 1st run that it has. This isn’t the GFS AI.

Damn that looks fantastic. Soooo hard not to get roped in with these looks lol. Oh well may as well push all the chips in because this is probably our last big chance anyway. If it fails we can track the nice sustained warm up for spring.

Florida's citrus industry, reeling from a 90% decline in production since 1997, is severely impacted by citrus greening (HLB) spread by the Asian citrus psyllid . The lack of hard freezes allows these insects to survive year-round, sustaining the bacteria that kills trees. Consequently, nearly 100% of Florida's groves are infected, with researchers testing genetically modified trees and, for now, relying on insecticide use. Key Impacts of Persistent Insect Populations: Constant Infestation: The Asian citrus psyllid, which transmits the Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus bacteria, thrives in warmer, milder winters, leading to year-round feeding on tender new leaf growth. Decimated Production: The inability to kill off the insect population has resulted in the lowest, or near-lowest, orange production in over a century, with 2021-2022 levels dropping to 12.6 million boxes from a peak of 250 million. Management Struggles: Because the psyllids remain active, growers are forced to use extensive chemical controls to mitigate, rather than eradicate, the disease. Research and Mitigation Efforts: Genetically Modified Trees: Researchers are developing trees that produce a protein, often derived from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt), which can kill the psyllid at its early stages, limiting the population. CUPS: Citrus Under Protective Screen (CUPS) structures are being used to physically exclude the psyllid, allowing for high-quality production in protected environments. Nutrient Management: While no cure exists, nutrient-rich, systemic treatments are used to help trees live longer, even though they remain infected.

WB AI GEFS for 1pm and 7pm Sunday.

The start of something?

Has had that for more than a few runs in a row now

Yeah of course that could be the final outcome, but it’s just not to see the ops advertising that.

Let’s do this. Lock it in skynets on board

Damn the 06z AIFS is a burial.

The Sunday chance is gaining momentum for a snow chance across most models. 6z GFS, 0z Canadian & 6z AI Euro

No i do not. Still too early imho. However, I am leaning against suppression. If anything...progressive system missing a full phase-capture is more a concern imo based on seasonal patterns and the Euro deterministic still sends up a red flag. Could see this hammering coastal zones and just grazing west of i95. That is our most likely 'fail' scenario.

I was just thinking that exact thought. This might be a legit threat.

WB 6Z GEFS actually is an improvement over 0Z looking at pressure locations.

It’s early, give it time. The models this winter have struggled, especially in the medium range.

One thing I will note is the that right now nothing is showing our typical miller b fail scenario, the more dud runs are south, not north, which I think is good. If the models were showing us getting skipped north every other run I’d be mad nervous.

At about 5 days out, want to see some globals showing a big hit. Nice to see more than one model suite with big hits. GEFS is still not great; let's see what EPS shows.

Ralph if you don’t mind me asking do you think eliminating any kind of suppression is a good call right now?

Fwiw, 6z Icon now has the low at 120hrs on the map unlike 0z that lost it to out to see. It's weak, but not too different than the 6z Euro.

Welcome back!

Mammoth was WILD last night!!! The 6z AIFS Euro has a "north of I40" track for the storm we have been discussing. I think it is likely more of a KY storm w/ wrap around, upslope snow here....but that is a pretty big shift. It went from nothing to something for snow.

I will not let these models pull me back in again, I will not let these models pull me back in again. Damn it.