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The line of storms that moved ese-ward across northern Iowa yesterday produced a long path of 60-70 mph wind. They crapped out just north of me, but I still got 40 mph gusts from the outflow.

Wow that is very informative comprehensive response

I did run my hypothesis by Grok, and he agrees that climate change can increase average temperatures in the summer while also lowering day to day variability. So this might explain why the data shows warming, while you remember more 95F & 100F days in the past. A sufficient increase in average temperature should be more than enough to overcome the lessened variance in the future.

Upper 80s on tap for today. Should be the hottest of 2025, so far. The warmest reading observed this year at KPIT is 86F, on June 4th and on April 19th.

Hope you guys are doing good. Anyone have been having sore throat the last few days, i'm wondering if it has anything to do with the wildfires up north in Canada. I mean my throat just actually hurts!

Haha that's a great story. You seem like a top-notch bartender. I'll have to come in sometime when I can try one of your cocktails. My boss was darn close to ordering an old fashioned and had he done so, I would have quickly followed suit ha. But alas, duty called. Food was outstanding!

Said like someone who’s never been there.

Actually, made it up to 95F at Des Moines yesterday, with a record-tying 96F at Waterloo, Iowa!

80 here too and the projected high for here is also 90 with westerly winds most of the day. a great day!!

Precisely, high temperatures. I prefer a Jacksonville climate vs Miami.

By hotter, I'm assuming you mean by maximum temperatures. By mean temps, Miami is about 2-3F warmer than Jacksonville. I would chalk that up to JAX having a more continental-influenced climate. While both are on the coast, Miami is at the tip of peninsular Florida. The increased latitude is less significant in the summertime, with insolation probably being about the same at both locations.

Seriously, almost 80 degree DP in certain locations in the Midwest, wow !

Finally it appears we are headed to a normal temp pattern, to at times above normal, with higher humidity levels. Eventually we may have the ingredients for a widespread severe weather threat in the Midwest and Mid Atlantic later in the month. Will post that in the severe thread.

Although I think Bristol, Tennesee is probably a better analog. 20 years ago, a regression from 1960 shows very little increase in 90+ days. The same regression run through 2024 now shows an increase of more than 3 weeks of such days. Definitely illustrates the folly of extrapolating from an existing trend without looking at what's going on behind the data. If one had examined the Bristol data closely, they would have noted an increase in the mean high temperature but found the increase in 90+ days somewhat offset by a decrease in internal variability [i.e., day-to-day variance]. So once normal highs climbed a bit more, the number of 90+ days exploded in the last 20 years. 1960-2004 1960-2024

Miami's average high was probably already mid to upper 80s so a couple degrees increase in averages puts their number of 90+ degree days way higher. They probably had a ton of days maxxing out at 88 or 89 and now they have all those days maxxing out at 90 or 91 instead.

Whats the difference between Miami and Jacksonville..... Jacksonville is further north but gets hotter in the summer, why?

Beautiful sunrise this morning. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

It will probably be like Miami. Looking at a linear regression of 90F+ days, we can see an increase from 31 to 117 such days since 1960. In 1972, there were only 3 days at or above 90F for the entire year! So it went from about one month of 90s to about 1/3 of the calendar year in the 90s.

I always had this benchmark for high heat going back to the early 90s.... if we hit 80 by 10 AM we stand a decent chance of having the high hit 90. if we hit 90 by 10 AM we stand a decent chance of having the high hit 100. It worked well in the 90s and even in years like 2010 and 2011 too, but not since then because of onshore flow =\

Maybe, there were some inside runners, too.

we have decent lapse rates today, maybe we can get a strong storm or two later

what is a "Pit8"

Man, we hate analytics, the three most boring outcomes has made the game very very hard to watch (similar to basketball). Thats a completely different topic though.

Maybe because of the warmer Great Lakes?

Well, that is interesting, as the Atlantic seems to be warmer closer to the East Coast and the Gulf. Plenty of SST juice if seasonal models are correct , already those areas are above normal. Threats may have shorter lead times and develop closer to the EC and the Gulf, but why does the superblend not indicate that, I am not sure at this time.