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Yeah. Looks like a special morning tomorrow. Hoping to get in on some 2 inch rates. However, signals are starting to point to this boundary lying close to if not over Long Island/S CT after day break Sunday morning. There may also be some added lift aloft from a passing jet. The 00z HREF is showing probabilities of greater than 3 inches in 3 hours around 30 percent over urban NE NJ, NYC into Western Long Island from 09-12z Sunday with some areas 40-60 percent over central LI into the central portions of CT coast 12-15z Sunday, and around 30 percent for southeastern CT 15z-18z Sunday. We have noted in recent flash flooding events that at least a 30 percent chance of 3 inches in 3 hours has often resulted in flash flooding in parts of the urban corridor. The 00z REFS also indicated a probability greater than 50 percent for greater than 3 inch amounts in some of these same areas, specifically east of the NYC metro. There is also about a 20-30 percent probability of around 2 inch per hour rates based of data from the WPC Urban Rain Rate Dashboard.

A trace of rain and an unknown low, as it appears the batteries in my weather station have finally failed after nearly four years.

Flurries for you

Endless Autumn?

Probably more mid 80s to perhaps around 90° by later next week at the usual warm spots. So a continuation of the endless summer pattern. Really impressive to see a near 600 dm ridge in September. Very difficult to get any sustained fall cooldowns beyond 3-4 days with such strong ridges.

Our weather this winter will feel like we’re somewhere over Laredo it seems

And, memorably, in January 1998. Weirdest, most unpleasant January day ever. It felt kind of like this morning does: gloomy, stifling and overcast.

Yeah it’s been rising quite a bit. Neutral-ish now

Dec. 14th

Since I'm in Pennsylvania I've dug up some records. July 1936 isn't the one you should be looking at it's July 1911. The progenitor of the 11 year cycle super hot summers with some amazing heat records in the Poconos that have not been matched since and probably will never be. Climate change may increase the average temperatures but we do not get record high temperatures like that anymore. Climate change is strictly minimum driven in this part of the country. Summer record highs are more common in the West and central part of the country. Not here. This is why I caution people not to assume that a +2 c increase in averages means the highs will increase by that much or that new heat records will be set, that's not how this works.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 442 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-130900- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- 442 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a chance for showers and storms later this afternoon into early Sunday that could result in ponding of water on roads and localized flooding. Strong winds will also be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is chance for strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon into the evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Probably nothing like what we had around this date in 1983. Did you check the records from 1983? That truly was the 4 month endless summer. June. July. August. September lol. The only other summers I can think of that were endless like that were 1991, 1993 and 2010. 2002 was very good too but I think that one ended in August like 1999 did. This summer has really been near normal. Each month has been hot in the first half and cool in the second half.

US National Weather Service State College PA Tornado #49 for PA in 2026: 972 NOUS41 KCTP 120053 PNSCTP PAZ005-120500- Public Information Statement National Weather Service State College PA 853 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026 ...NWS Damage Survey for 09/09/2026 Tornado Event... .Lafayette Township Tornado... Rating: EF1 Estimated Peak Wind: 105 mph Path Length /statute/: 1.23 miles Path Width /maximum/: 200 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: 09/09/2026 Start Time: 07:19 PM EDT Start Location: 2 WSW Cyclone / McKean County / PA Start Lat/Lon: 41.8097 / -78.6272 End Date: 09/09/2026 End Time: 07:22 PM EDT End Location: 1 WSW Cyclone / McKean County / PA End Lat/Lon: 41.8144 / -78.6054 Survey Summary: At 7:19 p.m. local time September 9, 2026 an EF-1 tornado with maximum wind speeds of 105mph touched down between Bradford Airport and Bingham Road with a maximum width of about 200 yards. It traveled east/northeast and damaged some trees around and west of Bingham Road. The tornado continued through the area of woods east of Bingham Road before doing its most intense damage along and north of Sprester Road. It uprooted and snapped many trees before flipping a trailer on its side. The tornado turned northeast and continued damaging trees into the woods before dissipating as it approached the Buffalo & Pittsburgh Railroad line around 7:22 p.m. local time. We would like to thank McKean County Emergency Management and members of the community who provided firsthand accounts, footage, and pictures of damage. &&

Although the new RRFS 2.0 is more widespread.

South coast special tomorrow

Thankfully 53. Not ready for summer to go. We endless.

The lawn must be frosted at that temp

52/50 .

51 degrees this morning. Been fishing and burning a lot of gas. Have about 10-15 mile run.

"So in a nutshell...the ingredients above are concerning for a narrow band of torrential rainfall and the potential for localized flash flooding. The HREF has probabilities for 6-24 HR precipitation values to exceed 10 year ARI across parts of eastern CT/RI and southeast MA. There are even very low probabilities to exceed 100 year ARI values near the south coast. That being said...whether or not this actually materializes remains uncertain and will depend on the mesoscale. And on top of that...even if it occurs trying to determine the specific location is still beyond the state of the science. But we do know this risk will hinge on the potential for where a mesoscale low tracks...which would setup an area of enhanced low level convergence for the southerly LLJ to impinge upon" Stein!

Northern California has been the place to be so far for cool fall weather.

46° coldest since June 2nd.

42.5° definitely under guidance HIE 32 and SLK 31