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The snowpack has stayed fresh, in all areas, for weeks on end. The lack of rain has been noteworthy, even up here.

Did he delete stuff? I see a respectful back and forth.

My P&C is 35...must be missing something.

Nam is a tick South.

I wouldn't weenie this post but I don't find it compelling. Dave is a proud, loud, card carrying Democrat and I feel his weather opinions are biased by his political opinions. If I am reading his graphic correctly there are 18 fewer balloons going up over the USA every day than before the budget cuts, and 5 of them are downstream from us. How many more private balloons are going up today compared to 5 or 10 years ago with data available to the globals? Have sattelite density and observational quality improved at all? Are the number and quality of plane sensors unchanged? What percentage of reduction does this represent when accounting for balloon soundings globally? "Fewer balloons is bad and ruining modeling" is a pretty simple take on the matter. As another poster said we've seen some abysmal model performance over the last five years, particularly the GFS since its latest "upgrade." These failures predate NOAA budget cuts.

Looked AN through mid March. Wouldn’t be surprised by a chilly spring. .

I did get a statistically significant values for my 6-12 day band, which for one location isn't bad Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

its tragic

With a slight risk of severe on thursday in southern half of subforums, time to kick off this years general severe weather thread. Pretty conditional tor threat on thursday but if thermos improve, this looks to be a classic warm front rider event for the area. Some similarities between this and 12/1/2018. Im not overly optimistic as the models are kinda all over the place right now. NAM suite doesnt have good 60+ dews. Low placement among models is a pretty big spread. The experimental models (RRFS and MPAS-RN) are certainly more bullish.

Shots fired in the Late Feb/Early March LR thread!

tomer?

the whole winter was mild especially compared to the year before which was epic; this was the only major storm in 95, included in kocin's book; i remember it was a saturday so impacts were less; it would be the last storm i would use a shovel on; december 95 i bought a snow blower and guess what, we had a major snow two days later....ya'll know what the rest of that winter was like; the blower was good for up to 12 inches......i thought that would be plenty.....wrong...

Maybe. Maybe not. Whether this thread was created or not has zero impact on that. As @Freezing Drizzle said though, this helps to clean up the main Feb thread a bit.

Would love to do another long track storm. Sign me up!

I implore everyone to listen to the audio. The explanation is amazing Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

it needed to be said, and it's something many of us suspected.

actually, it's the opposite. if you want winter to continue into spring, the euro weeklies are your friend.

One purpose of this thread is to de-clutter the general February thread.

man that euro ai run got me thinking, there's a really good possibility we're going to get clobbered!

April snow showers bring May sours.

I used notebooklm to create a presentation, a 15 min audio explanation, and a a 40 plus minutes audio explanation. I uploaded them to my Google drive and I'm sharing the links here to anyone who would like them. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eYsMJ7pfj7bkspqpEWT5ywOXpeLNm927/view?usp=drivesdk https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PAvsJvcXtsqNCrKxeKkOZSnKyZDmEZV-/view?usp=drivesdk https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pyxDpPhzXje7GH0TtABCarHRVp4si2kr/view?usp=drivesdk Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

HECS needs to be retired from the vocabulary. Should only be used in post storm analysis .

A winner for whom? You and I get zero snow in Augusta County.