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Today's highs Downtown LA - 81 Long Beach - 78 LAX - 69

.1” rain today.

Despite being in heavy rain multiple times in Charlottesville- heavy rain up Afton down into Eastern Waynesboro, NW edge of town/my backyard 0.02... The usual thunderstorm pattern the last few years....

Better to find now …. I’m not a praying guy but sending positive vibes.

Seventh straight day of measurable here and over 3" so far this month. Far cry from last May with 2.5" for the whole month.

When you finally get out on the golf course again, it’s going to be lift, clean and place.

Just watched the court scene from A Few Good Men before I head off to bed. Almost a quarter inch here so far and I sit right in the crosshairs of this potent little batch approaching. Night all.

My grass seed is floating down the Merrimack. Yard has become a pond.

This didn’t age well. Issued at 3.29p

Same here, ground just got wet

After a quick review, it looks like the early-1900s were more +NAO. This looks more cyclical since the 1890s, and although 3 swings is not much, it may even run in 50-year cycles, which we could actually be in the middle of.

I was using DJFM, but it's interesting to see that there's still only 1 example in 14 years, using DJF. +0.25 is not that much. There isn't NAO data from the 1930s, but imo the 1930s through early 1950s were probably more +NAO.

Congrats Fredrick lol

Thanks, Chuck. Winters (DJF) with avg of sub -0.25 NAO: -16 of 25 (64%) of 1954-5 through 1978-9 -6 of 45 (13%) of 1979-80 through 2024-5 (1984-5, 1986-7, 1995-6, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2020-1)

Oh no, that doesn’t sound great. Really pulling for you Mike. Just know us weather folk are with you all the way.

Euro has a wet look between now and the 23rd.

I'm not so sure the NAO is tied to CC. Why have other seasons had -NAO's, some strong -NAO? The Winter NAO state for the last 14 years is a bit of an anomaly, because it hasn't happened that way in other seasons. Don't get me wrong, I would say the trend is warmer and less snowy, but that N. Atlantic pressure index has not been favorable. With more global precipitable water now though, I think a -NAO these days would be less dry than several decades ago.

Really does seem that way - more so than normal the last 3 years with thunderstorm seasons... Almost always north of Winchester and usually south of 64 in the Valley with organized activity ... Central and northern Valley gets slammed with incredible droughts but Lexington southward no problem... So far it's alittle bit wetter than last years Feb through July down here before the tropical deluge started in Aug - When it was barely a 1.5 inch a month avg... It's annoying too - usually get slammed during work in Charlottesville only to go home and see less than a tenth in the gauge..

I just got brushed with some showers here...just west of me. .03"

I would take -NAO though. It's about a 0.5 or 75% correlation. Since 11-12, the lowest Winter NAO (DJFM) we have had is -0.14! And in that time there have been 18 Winter months >+1.12 NAO and 0 Winter months <-1.12 NAO. Remember, the NAO is a SLP measurement, so it's not always aligned with 500mb. We know about the record snow drought for PHL-NYC the last 7-8 years.. and every one of them has been +NAO. Not a perfect correlation, but a good one..

2.84" rainfall since Friday. Just started up again...

Would love just for once to have an easy caps playoff game. But a win is a win

Tom Wilson played his ass off tonight.

Off to bed, @ 1.72” / 57F

Well...my Echocardiagram today uncovered 2 significant issues (blockages) that's going to require treatment. And this is in addition to the original issue that I'm on steroids for now.