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Yep already saw that. Insane how they live. They are the true winter weenies

If we roll through phase 7, 8 and 1 later in December, we should have a pattern with chances to score Winter weather.

Overnight, it looks like the GFS started to get rid of the feedback over the SW. The 6z run pretty much eliminates it after the 6th. There will be a cutoff out there, but the GFS(and its ensemble) kick out everything after it. Is this because the model has a progressive bias? Maybe. But it would also be the first to fix whatever is going on(if indeed there is a feedback error which seems to be growing more likely).

I grew up in Dover, DE. We had lots of good winters between 1977 and 1996. At least 4 16"+ storms and good stretches of deep cold, iced/skating ponds, etc.

If that trough out west progresses east, that could be a good set up?

I think that evolving N. Pacific pattern doesn't match the MJO too well. Wonder if the EPS, and models over the last two days, have it less amped.

43 degrees and foggy. Picked up .18 of rain overnight. Deer came to visit last night, had about 8 deer in the yard. My oldest son lives on the outskirts of the city. “Hill section” And it nothing for him to see 20 deer a night. He has an electric fence around his garden to keep the deer out.

^It's what the pattern is evolving into. The EPO is breaking down there, and -PNA is building.. usually that happens over the Pacific at 500mb first then a few days later it effects SE ridge downstream. With super +NAO like that anything unfavorable in the Pacific is going to blast the ridge north going into the 2nd week of December.

wet

The videos from Svalbard are pretty wild also.

Lol, someone please tell me how this is not good … EPS is still on track for cold to be entrenched by December 5th.

I always watch videos of Siberia lol

In leominster and mod rain.. meh

GFS FTW this morning. What a miserable run that was in cold rain

You can already see the model differences between the EPS, GEFS, and GEPS at the end of their respective runs. The GEFS and GEPS hold onto the Western trough and Southeast ridge longer than the EPS. It’s probably due to the GEFS and GEPS showing more Maritime Continent forcing longer than the EPS. One of the EPS biases is dampening the convection too much there week 2 and beyond. This is why I like to use the VP anomaly charts over the RMM charts which can follow the convection to the east. One of the features of recent Decembers is a tendency for the forcing to linger in that region than the models originally anticipate. This lingering convection is why it has been so difficult in recent years to get a clean MJO 8 with no convection in that area like we last had in January 2022. So patience is often required this time of year as the pattern change to colder is usually delayed.

The stuff I saw showed a big ridge over Santa at 10mb. That’s what I kept saying talk to me when it gets to 50mb. I agree with the warm intrusion as you noted. But otherwise big effing deal. We see these intrusions every winter. I don’t have access to the eps stuff so maybe someone can post it.

As has been discussed ad nauseam here, I don't believe there's anything to worry about regarding a colder and *potentially snowier* pattern setting up mid-December and beyond for the northeast. The SE ridge will be suppressed enough to allow the baroclinic boundary to slowly inch south and eastward towards the coast, the CPC map you shared is highlighting that (just compare weeks 3-4 to weeks 2-3). It won't happen in an instant, but the cold will try to bleed south into the northern Mid-Atlantic towards the second or third week of December which should offer chances of snow. The nuances in the flow are impossible to figure out at this point, hence *potentially snowy*. Fail mode is obviously if the -PNA overpowers any SE ridge suppression.

To quote the great Rob Schneider- “Oh no, we suck again”.

I think we know where this is headed folks

Some models quickly recover the PV.

The real cold on Thanksgiving will be closer to Siberia. You have to give those people credit for surviving in such a cold environment. Luckily, their energy bills to heat their units are relatively low compared to what we would be paying if it ever got that cold here.

I think so. We don’t have gutters in our area either. They’d just be clogged 50% of the year.

There have been winters that provided remarkable snow and ice events. Long duration cold, MECS, etc. nothing weird about that.

End of the 0z EPS is showing a +2std +NAO All the roll forward stuff this year was predicting it for the Winter at about a +0.2-0.3 correlation: - 7 straight +NAO months Feb to August - 8 straight +AO months March to October - Lag from Solar Max 0z EPS mean 360hr:

End of the 0z EPS is not looking good lol