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May have to lean GEFS/GEPS 70% EPS/AIFS 30% blend with EPS leaning too warm lately

First teens of the season. 16.3° for the low.

Had more rain than I thought. The event for here was 0.46"

It will change, but the 6z GFS shows the potential for the pattern with a slider late in the run.

Lol You can't lead a blind parade down a straight street ever since you have had 3 bad winters. Confirmation bias to the max.

Ironically it seems the worst offending decade was the 1990s…no October or early Nov snows and plenty of late ones. You wouldn’t think so in an otherwise fairly snowy decade.

And only 50% of Novembers have an inch or more of snow despite some peeps memories

0.55” imby/Columbia overnight. 0.89” to date for November.

All models are going strong into 7. The key will be whether it dies in 7, or pushes into 8 like the above plot does. I'm not convinced that will happen (and bluewave doesn't think it will), but if it does, it will be great for us.

2003 was so much fun. That was my freshman year of high school and during lunch I'd be outside playing frisbee in the snow

flurries for most some steadier snow in shelton derby I saw a very light coating in some pics on the grass.. HRRR sucks as we thought

Can only lead them to water

EPS still looks warm for Thanksgiving…cold shot comes for the weekend

lol. We will likely have a mild period near or after turkey day. Has nothing to do with it. You whack to that index every year.

Here 2003 and 1961 rule the roost

BS you were calling for Banana hammocks and flip flops for Tday. I tried to tell you to lean much colder due to EPO drop. Never mentioned snow.

Yeah down here not really sure you can really define that. but this makes sense now. I remember a comment from FXWX yesterday that said it's exceptionally tough down here...which it is.

I can confirm that it was all rain in Maytown. If there was anything else it was exceptionally brief and or a random pellet or two. Received a very beneficial .49" of rain, much of it fell between 11:00PM and 12:45AM. Like you, my temp was 39 throughout.

Jay Peak over 90” this season? lol. I’m sure PF would love to chime in.

That’s not what’s happening. The pattern still isn’t good for anything frozen really until we get towards the first week and after in December. A random cool shot was always in the cards.

Haha. It’s one of those accurite ones so not like a Davis shield. It’s more because I’m a weenie and just curious. My brother-in-law also bought a fixer upper last year right on the water in N Plymouth. I’m pushing him to get a Davis because I’m sure he’ll have some good obs. It’s got some trees in his yard, but he’s like a couple hundred yards from the water in about 50 feet up or so.

Pretty much every time a Neg EPO pops models miss the cold extent. Been harping for a week plus.

Seriously. I dont know what people are seeing that the rest of us aren't seeing. Things look good moving forward.

6z GFS is right where we want it?