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28 for a low here as well

Latest Sat afternoon/evening NWS briefing. Coastal flooding looks to be the major hazard with this system. Latest Briefing Oct 11 evening.pdf

Coastal geomorphology. That tight right 90 degree angle is the perfect surge enhancer. That’s why the big bend in Florida is also so surge prone. Along with our enormous shallow continental shelf. One of the biggest in the world.

#asusualdie

hows that going for you

if the models dont have it..its not happening. Start hugging models

I feel that pain. Fortunately I have a second zone for upstairs, where the bedrooms are, that I can leave off. Even when I have that zone on it's set cooler than downstairs to avoid the hot bedroom issue. Humidity, both high and low, affects me more than temps, but with baseboard hot water heat I won't need the humidifiers fired up until winter.

This looks really good, but 2 of these recent or fairly recent Nina analogs were really shitty winters. And Dec 2006-Jan 2007 was awful, although Feb 2007 was cold and fairly snowy.

By the way, I settled on this for analogs for temperatures for the cold season: Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb: 2013-14 (x4), 2024-25 (x4), 2018-19, 2022-23 Mar, Apr: 2019 (x4), 2023 (x4), 2014, 2025 Couple pretty cold months in there, but its not really long-lasting or consistent where it shows. Snow anomaly looks like a smiley face, going from Montana-Idaho border to NM-CO border in the West, Ozarks shooting NE to interior New England/Maine for heavy snow. In between (OK/NE New Mexico, North TX, etc) will have some nasty ice storms. I went below average for snow northern plains. I expect very little snow here for most of the actual winter, but there are windows in November, late Feb-late Apr that should be productive. For winter precipitation I used the Mar/Apr weighting for wetness/dryness. Jan-Mar has retrograding cold shots as the La Nina rapidly collapses while cold air is still around. So by March its Plains/West, but for January Plains/East.

The last time was Sandy that happened wasn't it?

You don’t see this kind of advisory too often Flood Advisory National Weather Service New York NY 438 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 NYC071-079-087-119-132200- /O.NEW.KOKX.FA.Y.0077.251011T2038Z-251013T2200Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Orange NY-Putnam NY-Rockland NY-Westchester NY- 438 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Minor to locally moderate flooding is expected in low-lying areas along the Hudson River due to 3 to 4 ft of storm surge up the Hudson River during the times of high tide Sunday afternoon, Sunday Night and Monday afternoon. * WHERE...A portion of southeast New York, including the following counties, Orange, Putnam, Rockland and Westchester. * WHEN...Until 600 PM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Scattered areas minor to locally moderate flooding is expected in the most vulnerable locations near the waterfront and shoreline. Expect around 1 to 2 ft of inundation above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas. Some roads and low lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns and homes/businesses with basements near the waterfront will experience shallow flooding. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 422 PM EDT, Minor to locally moderate flooding is expected in low-lying areas along the Hudson River due to 3 to 4 ft of storm surge up the Hudson River during the times of high tide Sunday afternoon, Sunday Night and Monday afternoon. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Piermont, Stony Point, Cortland, Ossining, Cold Spring, Newburgh and Croton-on-Hudson. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

How did Cape May get a 12+ foot surge, that furthest South red point on your map.

Yup still holding on this year and didn’t cave yet. Will see how it goes with the rain and lack of sun the next couple of days.

I think we were somewhere between 9-11 feet up here you might want to double check though I'm going by memory.

My forecast did suggest a slow start. Enjoy the fall weather while you can. Come january you will be wishing for temps above 45 . I expect more mix events than anything else in late nov into mid dec as the pattern sets up for january

Yep, I think last year was only the second time I made it to November lol October 10th is a little early for me though.

I agree it just doesn't feel comfortable to walk on a cold floor either. It's wonderful in the summer though, just not now.

Sorry I currently have brain freeze Only kidding, I believe it was the 3rd week of October last year, I try to make it to Halloween annually but usually cave in a week or two before then every year.

I was going to ask you if you saw the Northern Lights up there but I guess not with all that dust? Or is that something that only happens during the races with dust being kicked up?

Maybe I'm just a wussy but I don't like being chilled in my own house, it just bugs me. It also makes my back feel like shit and I don't like feeling shitty. Heat goes on at 65 when the house drops below 60. We need an old man shakes fist at clouds emoji

ha! I'm lucky if remember yesterday

Very. I rented a black pickup and it was dark brown the first day and a dusty beige when I left after 3 days. To be fair it was parked on the mountain at Whiteface and in a dirt parking lot at Mt V. Between Mt bikes sliding around and thousands of spectators there were clouds of dust hovering over the racecourses all day.

NWS has dialed back my predicted coastal flooding. Slowly, we look to be headed from major to moderate instead. Living on the water, 4-8 inches can mean the difference between insane amounts of water damage or just a PIA cleanup.

I'm still amazed at the job the LFM did with the Blizzard of 78. Had it at 48 (only went out to 48 hours) hours and never let it go or wavered. I have that as second hand information as I was in high school at the time. I do remember speaking with Meteorologist Bill Korbel at the time and he was keeping me in the loop. I was one of his Weather Watchers back in the day. Great guy and great Met. LFM had a shaky reputation to say the least and was notorious for pulling the rug at the last minute.

It’s a Minecraft mountain.