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My bad, that was the 18z NAM 3k. Was on mobile and thought I clicked to HRRR but the screen somehow reset. I’ll edit my post.

If you live 20 miles south of DC, you will LOVE the HRRR.

We are such a wasteful region

?

Not a flake here yet, but looking at radar that maybe getting ready to change. Maybe just maybe 32 degrees

Generally seems wetter than the HRRR depiction which helps us all out even south id think. I’m just praying I don’t get stuck between bands!

23z HRRR might be showing what Terpeast is alluding to... there's a heavy band about 25 miles south of DC.

Dude, he’s having a kid. Do your homework. Just playing with you.

If radar trends hold, yes

Nasty shit man

The latest HRRR was one of the snowier models. Are you implying a boom is in the cards?

Well I’m no statistician…but that’s still 2out of 3 that aren’t all that cold/wintry. I think that’s more the point. Sometimes they are…more times they aren’t. Let’s enjoy this wintry one.

I just compared radar with the 18z 3k NAM sim for the same valid time (00z, which is now). Actual radar shows echos north of the TN/KY border, model doesn’t. Northern extent may be underdone, and perhaps a bit too slow.

Wow, the other counties are really dragging their feet with this one…

I vote we just put everything in here.

Well, forecast was updated about 20 minutes ago, right there on the edge of WSW criteria -

18z Eps has a few interesting members. 12z had 1

What’s he got to do with cold? What am I missing?

But wasn't the Euro the one that had to come back northwest with the last event?

They run off of 30 year normals. Most sites run off of 1991-2020 averages, which were a step up from 1981-2010 averages, which were a step up from 1971-2000 averages. Im surprised nobody's made a tool to show what specific months or years would look like using modern 30 year averages vs older ones.

See you for the 00z nam

Time to find something else to do bro…we’ll see you when a storm is imminent.

Well if I that’s the case, then why aren’t the normal highs and lows colder than they are, if that’s real? Something ain’t adding up if that’s the case?

Still a bit of ridge causing the storm to lift north late