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Wonder if we can actually tap some tropical moisture later in the month? We haven’t been able to do this in a while. I guess we will just have to wait until we get closer to the forecast time period and see how the potential Western Caribbean development progresses.

Lots of streams around Bow have been totally dry or just stagnant pools of water. Been hiking in the area for years and had never seen them dry until this season.

Only thing we watch is a deep trough nearby. At least as currently modeled, that appears to be on the table.

When are there not weenie members.

What should become Melissa may be something to watch in the 10/28 - 11/3 period.

Yes, we're watching it today. DM me if you're up there next year, our barn gets a tent on Saturday near jump 16/25 and you'd be welcome to stop by!

Records: Highs: EWR: 87 (2016) NYC: 85 (2016) LGA: 86 (2016) JFK: 86 (2016) Lows: EWR: 30 (1976) NYC: 30 (1940) LGA: 32 (1940) JFK: 31 (1976) Historical: 1749: A tremendous hurricane tracked offshore Virginia, northeast to Cape Cod. At 1:00 a.m. at Norfolk, winds became violent from the northeast. The fury of the storm peaked between 10:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m.. In Williamsburg, one family drowned as flood waters carried their house away. At Hampton, water rose to four feet deep in the streets; many trees were uprooted or snapped in two. Torrents of rain flooded northern Virginia and Maryland. The Bay rose to fifteen feet above normal...destroying waterfront buildings. An account of this tremendous storm was given in the biography of Commodore James Barron, An Affair of Honor, by William Oliver Stevens. Barron's grandfather witnessed the hurricane first hand while stationed at Fort George. The account is as follows: "A threatening sky was observed to the southeast over the Chesapeake Bay. The wind increased which soon brought the rain. As the hours wore on the wind and rain increased in fury. Sometimes the downpour slackened. One could hear the sand picked up by the wind from the beach outside and blasted against every object that still withstood the gale. All the while the rising tide was rapidly being piled up to a height never seen before in that area. The waves were pounding on the shore, finally to the very foot of the outside wall at Fort George. A large tree crashed over on its side with its roots in the air and was driven against the land side of the Fort. With the impact the wall yawned and broke. Shortly afterwards the seawall lurched and sank at the point where it was exposed to the wave fury of the storm. Finally the outside wall of the fort gave way, and the filling of sand poured out, leaving the inner wall exposed to the blast without support. When this too fell apart and collapsed, the barracks took the full force of the wind. About sundown, the storm slackened and in another hour the rain and wind had diminished to such a degree that it was clearly spent. " The next morning Commodore Barron swept the distant waters with his spy glass. He was astonished to see across Hampton Roads a wide, sand promontory which had not existed there before. A sand spit had been thrown up during the fury of the storm, which was the beginning of Willoughby Spit. (Ref. Hurricane of 1749) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1844 - The famous "Lower Great Lakes Storm" occurred. Southwesterly winds were at hurricane force for five hours, driving lake waters into downtown Buffalo NY. The storm drowned 200 persons. (David Ludlum) 1940: 2.2 inches of snowfall was recorded at Philadelphia, PA starting on this date and ending on the 20th, for the highest amount of snow received from a storm in October. The maximum 1.7 inch snow depth measured is an October record. Baltimore, MD received 0.4 inches on this day and 0.9 inches on the 20th. Washington, DC received just a tenth of an inch of snow on this date followed by 1.4 inches on the 20th. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) 1961 - Rain changed to a record early season, heavy wet snow over the southern mountains of West Virginia. Leaves were still on trees, resulting in the worst forest disaster since the fires of 1952 and 953. One to two feet of snow fell near Summersville and Richwood. (19th-20th) (The Weather Channel) 1984 - Thunderstorms deluged the town of Odem, TX (located 15 miles northwest of Corpus Christi) with 25 inches of rain in just three and a half hours. Most businesses in Odem were flooded, as were 1000 homes in nearby Sinton. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A cold front brought rainshowers to parts of the central U.S., and ushered cool Canadian air into the Great Plains Region. Daytime highs were only in the 30s in North Dakota and eastern Montana. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced high winds in eastern Colorado, with gusts to 63 mph reported at La Junta. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Record breaking snows fell across northern and central Indiana. Totals ranged up to 10.5 inches at Kokomo, and 9.3 inches was reported at Indianapolis. The 8.8 inch total at South Bend was a record for the month as a whole. Up to seven inches of snow fell in extreme southern Lower Michigan, and up to six inches fell in southwestern Ohio. The heavy wet snow downed many trees and power lines. Half the city of Cincinnati OH was without electricity during the morning hours. Temperatures dipped below freezing across much of the Great Plains Region. Twenty cities, including fourteen in Texas, reported record low temperatures for the date. North Platte NE reported a record low of 11 degrees. In Florida, four cities reported record high temperatures for the date. The record high of 92 degrees at Miami also marked a record fourteen days of 90 degree weather in October, and 116 such days for the year. 1990: A tornado damaged an apartment complex and shopping center near Baltimore, MD. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1996: The opening game of World Series between the Braves and Yankees in New York was postponed by heavy rains and high wind from a major storm system affecting the East Coast, marking the third time in history that the World Series opener had been postponed. Overall, nine of the 22 games that have been canceled in Series history were scheduled in New York or Brooklyn. 2005: Hurricane Wilma pushed the 2005 season to the most active ever recorded, added another entry to the record books. The central pressure of this Category 5 storm fell to 882 millibars or 26.05 inches of mercury, the lowest minimum pressure ever measured in the Atlantic basin. Its maximum sustained wind peaked at 185 mph. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

The latest teleconnection forecast calls for a negative AO, negative NAO, and positive PNA in the closing days of October and opening days of November. Such a combination can favor a period of wetter weather. The latest ECMWF weekly forecast for October 27-November 3 shows wet anomalies. It should be noted that the Week 2 CFSv2 anomalies are on the dry side of normal. Therefore, at least for now, the period merits watching, but there remains considerable uncertainty. I suspect that the odds are somewhat more in favor of the ECMWF outcome given historic outcomes, but that won't become clearer until the operational guidance moves into its high-skill forecasting range.

My daughter who rides is home on her fall break. Told her next year if it is during her fall break we will take a drive over to watch. Nice that MPT was/is showing it live on their broadcast.

51 / 46 (11 Hours of daylight) Clear then partly / mostly cloudy later. Warmest of the next week or two perhaps much longer than that. low - mid 70s in the warmest spots (76/77). Front comes trough later this evening and overnight 0.50 - 1.00 of rain (most north). Dry week - near normal overall warmer Tue cooler Wed - Fri. Next weekend looks dry and cooler into the week of the 27th.. Cutoff storm into the midwest to be ironed out along with what will be Melissa in the 10/29 - 11/3 period. Could be an interestingly unsettles close o the month. 10/19: Warmest of the next week or longer 10/20 - 10/27: Near normal overall coolest next weekend 10/28 - 11/3 : Cutoff into the Midwest, Melissa could be near along the EC

That’s why I feel it’s better to continue to repost JB’s posts regarding Dr. Viterito’s undersea volcanoes warming from underneath hypothesis (like Don just did and I’ve been doing) so that it can be repeatedly be refuted here with facts.

Lock this radar look in for December/January

AIFS seems off showing too much of a hole in the W Atl ridging N/NW of 98L. The other ML models don't support its scenario of 98L curving sharply NE toward Hispaniola. https://x.com/yconsor/status/1979887548240650357

Hard to get cold when the world including North America is on fire. Looks close to normal, which at this point is considered freezing

WB 11Z HRRR.... has storms crossing the mountains by 11pm.

The 0Z UKMET once again has just a rather weak low (not even a TC on the textual output; it has yet to show TCG in the Caribbean on this output though it awhile back had several runs with TCG east of the Lesser Antilles) and again into Nicaragua. The last 5 runs have shown a weak low either hitting Nicaragua (0Z 10/19, 12Z 10/18), barely E of Nic. but heading into it (0Z 10/18, 12Z 10/17), or still 200 miles E of Nic. but likely headed into it (0Z 10/17). Looking at the H5 vorticity, it appears that as the AOI on the TWO comes into the E Car that a portion of it turns sharply right like the GFS but unlike that model it never develops. Then what looks like a split from this, possibly incorporating additional vorticity coming off northern S America, causes the weak low to move into the SW Caribbean, which then goes into Nicaragua. So, the UKMET remains a SW outlier. I should add that yesterday’s 12Z JMA is similar and it has been similar all of the way back to the 12Z 10/15 run. So, the JMA has had 4 12Z runs in a row with just a weak low into Nicaragua or just offshore headed there. Thus the UKMET and JMA have a good chance to both either fail badly or end up doing the best of the major operationals with this. ——— 0Z 10/19 UKMET 156 12Z 10/18 JMA 168

Of course he blocked you when presented with evidence. These far right cranks are all cowards. When anyone challenges them they either scream "fake news" or ignore you entirely. But hey there's plenty of stupid, ignorant people out there (look at who voted in our current joke administration) that'll continue to follow and support him.

Yup some GEFS members as well..

This is clearly a top down warming process. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

Yellowjackets will be on the move today

Actually there’s some EPS ensemble member support for the op

I’ll take 3 of these November, December, January and February.

The shortwave trough arrives along with a strong surface front early Monday morning, and moves quickly offshore by mid Monday afternoon. Guidance is in rather good agreement on the timing of the line of heavy rain or Fine Line. The Fine Line should be approaching western MA/CT between 5-7 am and arriving at the I-95 corridor between 8-11 am. The line will then be moving offshore, likely by 1-2 pm in the afternoon. Although Fine Line will be moving rather quickly, it will pack a punch as it moves through and create disruptions to the morning commute. PWATS ahead of the line will be surging to near 1.5 inches, which, combined with the strong forcing from the shortwave, will likely result in rain rates exceeding 1-2 inches per hour. Strong to possibly damaging winds may also accompany the line as low-level winds around 2kft will be approaching 50-60mph.

After he was corrected on the volcanoes issue with a link to a paper and data source showing warming at the upper and lower levels, he responded by blocking me. The description of the warming as being “top-down,” not “bottom-up,” as would have been the case were volcanoes involved, was too much for him.

Wow just saw it levels Maine lol. What in the actual fuck.