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Rap increased QPF a lot on 21z run compared to previous several runs. Mostly due to the convective stuff performing better.

I have 6" log outer walls- R value isnt the best but not as relevant because of the high thermal mass(heat storing capability).

Well, I wouldn't take what some deterministic model says at face value going farther out in time. I mean heck...if anyone saw the 12Z GFS earlier, it had cold coming back in the last part of its run and even had a decent snow event around the 24th. Not that it matters really that far out. So whatever.

I think most of Maine does well, maybe 3-4 where I am and the coast north of Portland up to 8 inches.

Kinda weird since he would just regurgitate anything the Euro spits out.

radar backfilling in NY, maybe can catch some of that later, they cancelled basketball tonight because of this, amazing...

I only lived there one year ‘95-96, but this was my experience there. Not sure I saw the sun for 2-3 months.

Yea. C-1” for SWCT.

Lol. No forecaster knows that they can even predict 3 days out let alone rest of winter

yeah dews in single digits all day, sfc temp marginal as well... I can probably count the flakes that have fallen so far

Low 40s as far as the eye can see.

Good thing we dont really need true Arctic air in February to get snow.

Talk about a bad model

LOL! Really? OK, yeah I definitely can agree we're done with Arctic air the rest of this winter. I mean, that's just climo and it's rare to get that level of cold as we get farther into this month and into March. So that's kind of a meaningless statement. But we don't need brutal cold to still get a solid wintry event or two between now and March.

Dumping now

Gets some light rain up to us buts being shunted almost due east once it gets to us. So, it's trash on this run.

Well, getting into the time of year when we typically don't "lock in" on any cold/warm setup so I guess that's not a surprise. I still think we don't get shut out the remainder of the season, and perhaps not even the rest of this month. A decent moderate event, maybe on the order of a SECS-MECS, would still have to be on the table I'd like to believe, between now and early-mid March. And perhaps a second event of some sort too if lucky.

GFS looks a little more north, but not sure it's gonna make it and temps look like they'd be an issue anyway

Damn. Now I'm RAVENOUS On second thought, YUCK. Someone needs to learn how to trim their damn nails...

Didn’t take long here to saturate . Very light but snowing

Stick a fork in it. Veronica Johnson on WTOP radio just said that we're done with the Arctic air from here on out.

2-m temps look horrid at 120, actually.

i think there will be mini windows for winter weather. I dont think a cold or a warm pattern is going to lock in. Lot of variability.....perhaps we score once or twice

I have the spray foam insulation, i need the AC on today.

First flakes