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We too quickly buy as gospel LR guidance, which in my experience seems to be at its worst in the winter months. Best to take warmth or cold with a grain of salt.

The teleconnection idea (predominant state during the periods) is based on the GEFS and EPS, including the weekly EPS ideas. That's why I noted that the probability for Scenario 3 has increased somewhat, as some of the guidance now moves toward a more robust AO+. The consensus remains a persistent PNA- (closer to neutral but not positive). Here's the latest GEFS forecast going into December (preponderance of ensemble members show a PNA<0):

And going beyond the lack of skill in MJO forecasts beyond 10 days, other factors can overwhelm it. Sometimes even high amplitude passages through Phase 8 during passage through Phases 7-2 don't generate a wintry response in North America. December 1-12, 1990 is one example. March 1-25, 2023 is another example, even as it was an off-the-scales passage through Phase 8.

100%. I dont have them, just crushed rock around the base for drainage for roof runoff. If your house has perfect insulation, than it should not be an issue with gutters, but most houses are older around here and that's not the case. Definitely have seen gutters hanging on by a thread mid/late winter after ice dams take them down.

Great post! CFS: AO

Great way to start off the lift serve season at Stowe yesterday! Upper Starr into untouched woods first run of season! Glorious! .

Not to be a weenie but what makes you think it’s “very unlikely” the pna flips positive for a period in december?

Dump west...bleed east

Pretty sure if Boston doesn’t reach 70 by end of year, it’s the earliest, last 70F day. Last 70F day was 10/8. Think Fisher tweeted that.

0.0" 42/40. Been a decent stretch of real Nov weather. Last temp above 50 was the 10th and lows mostly in the 20s.

Maybe I got a little excited and it’s more like .3” At this point I’m going out and just dealing with it.

0.17”, 51 degrees

I hear ya. Expecting a dry Saturday and you end up with half of the day wet would piss me off too. Looks like we may clear out up here by midday. I have more crap to get done in the yard.

Same as you.

Here's my thinking based on the latest guidance and some of the longer-range guidance. I focus on what I believe are the three biggest potential scenarios for much of December.

Fantasy land on the GFS looks really good for the upper Midwest, but time will tell if it’s a trend or mirage. 0.03” of precipitation in November, something has got to give.

There was definitely bright banding, but it was moderate rain earlier. Came down good for awhile. I’m just more annoyed than anything.

About .25” here. Maybe a tenth left.

I will say I wish it had busted more. The well has been a little better, but it’s still tenuous.

We were definitely in the soup through last night:

I think a lot of people jumping this early, is due to the trauma of wearing gym clothes to Christmas events some years. I just hope for seasonable in Dec, anything more is gravy.

.35-.4 there? It’s pretty light overall and moving out quick. Some of those echoes have a little bright banding too.

The realistic bar for a successful December these days is a seasonable Christmas and a 1-3”er at some point. Once we start stringing a few of those together we can be ledge jumping on Nov. 22nd because a few LR ens runs don’t look as good as they used to

Two things have consistently diminished from the long to short range over the last 4 months: big rain events and big torches. Will early December finally have both? I guess we’ll see.

This would have been fluff. Probably will end up .35-.4ish. At least T-Day looks good and we were right to toss the gfs from yesterday.