All Activity

Big changes coming to the gfs model, new datasets, etc including AI stuff. Talking about it right now on weather channel with new guy in charge of noaa

Normal

Todays Euro Weeklies are still not great by any means but they are a bit colder/less mild during 3 weeks of the 4 weeks starting with week 2: 12/29-1/4 today 12/29-1/4 yesterday: 1/12-18 today: 1/12-18 yesterday: 1/5-11 was also a little colder today

You two love being wrong . Keep it up.

What happened? You said 9 before, now we're down to 7?!

Non the less, if the 1 met who says there's a chance of a L forming of the coast giving most east snow, is correct then snow not rain. But I believe what he says with a grain of salt lol Around new years*

thats what we like to hear!

it's one run, but it's certainly possible. Winters like 2005-06 had something similar. Need to see if it holds or not...

You are more annoying then Tony saying every winter storm threat will snow and "we track". @MJO812

Shocking no major storms enough to put a damper or stop festivities in NYC area.

lol only destroyed by those who continue to expect op runs to be consistent 10-15 days out. I'll stop contributing to the stupidity by not making anymore posts about what is possible based on an op run. It's pretty ridiculous how so many long time members of a weather forum still don't understand how this works.

I think the ridge over the central US is just too powerful and at some point the negative PNA will force storms into the West Coast, causing the ridge to roll over into the east. By then ,the ridge will be less powerful but still give us above normal temperatures and dryer conditions

Delayed but not denied? Or is this just more of the same from the models showing a big warm up in the extended range only to keep pushing it further out as they have been doing since early fall?

Not sure how long the more hostile pattern will last, but definitely dont see any pattern sustaining itself the rest of winter. One analog year that Ive not seen thrown around, but this winter is somewhat resembling so far (at least through the forecasted end of December) is 1964-65.

The one thing that makes the Weeklies(any brand) fallible is that they tend to perpetuate the week two pattern - true feedback. That is why it is important not to put to much stock in LR ext modeling unless IMHO they change from that two week pattern. In other words, if the model doesn't continue in perpetuity...that is worth paying attention to. I have seen cold patterns modeled for all six weeks...not even make it into week 3. That also works for warm air masses. So, that is why I like looking at the control which is basically just one big deterministic run.

Over the last few days been some pretty big gust in here ha ha.

Remember when 1/2 of this forum cancelled winter back in October?

Absolutely abysmal for any winter weather prospects. Only storminess will be heading to west coast because of the -PNA. I don’t think we should discount a January 2023 scenario. Cold and snow across conus for most of December 2022, and then late in the month we flipped to a torch and the east stayed like that for rest of winter. The west got record snowfall because of a deep -PNA

Cherry picking some stuff from the Euro Weeklies, though I didn't think the ensemble was half bad!

You can say it....we're due!

Agreed, I know I’m not going to nitpick what constitutes a “torch period” regarding the weather from about yesterday thru the first half of tomorrow or so. Given how potent of a southerly flow this system has that is going to tracking well north of PA, it could definitely be warmer out ahead of it here. LSV might briefly climb into the high 50s prior to FROPA tomorrow morning before a brief but potent return to some below average temps later tomorrow. With that said, we do have an actual torch period setting up through at least the Christmas to New Year’s period… centered on the central US. Really about the only teleconnection we have going for us in this timeframe is a developing negative NAO.. which acts to keep significant warm anomalies at bay in the northeastern US. The degree of which is what modelling is back and forth about. I think in play here in Central PA are a couple of waves that may have enough cold in place to produce some kind of a wintry mix type scenario. But overall looking like more of a transient/brief cold enforcement vs the kind of persistent cold temps we had the first half of the month. I’m overall kind of pessimistic about this period, as I feel the mostly +EPO and now significantly -PNA are going to be a stronger teleconnection influence vs the -NAO/neutral AO. Keeps very cold anomalies bottled up in western Canada and storm track continues to be northern branch dominated with little southern stream action as evidenced here by a very dry southeastern US. GEFS v Euro EPS temp anomalies (10 day avg centered beginning of Christmas week to New Year’s Day)

Not necesssarily warmer temps, but a baroclinic zone with an extreme temp gradient for good forcing/instability and (more importantly) an upper flow that's not hauling ass, so that troughs have enough time to dig & close off.

Thats awful. RIP

He and has family died in a plane crash today in Statesville