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  2. forkyfork
    my point exactly. the pac jet wouldn't allow for any cold highs where we needed them
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    1997-1998 was more favorable early on because it was unique in the sense that occurred during a strong easterly QBO in conjunction with the low and ascending portion of the solar cycle. This season will undoubtedly be more hostile early on, but probably more favorable later in the season given the westerly QBO/descending solar that is far more common during intense episodes of warm ENSO.
  4. forkyfork
    whatever you need to tell yourself
  5. jm1220
    Wonder if you can even call that a halfacane, maybe thirdacane?
  6. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  7. Itstrainingtime
    Their expected rainfall for PA has been reduced on each of the last 4 cycles they've put out. Discouraging. Yesterday morning, the entire southern half of PA was in the 1.5"+ area. (purple shading)
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    How did this one work out in SNE?
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm surprised, usually low pressure over SE Canada works out well on the east coast.
  10. forkyfork
    drip drop
  11. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  12. forkyfork
    all rain
  13. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  14. forkyfork
    1998 couldn't get a snowstorm because the pacific jet would not allow enough cold to build in canada. this event is even more unfavorable than that one
  15. forkyfork
    none of the east coast storms will be cold enough for snow
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's also important not to be too dialectical in our thought process, as it's human instinct to focus on snow/rain as binary events, but the truth is that in all likelihood they often won't be this season. Several 2-5"ers followed by IP and rain still counts towards the seasonal total.
  17. dailylurker
    I was up there in January, 2025 when It was -5 with about 10" on the ground. It was awesome.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    That would make sense to me and is consistent with my forecast.....RONI should still lag in the seasonal mean by around .2 to .4, but may get closer than that late.
  19. LakePaste25
    Once we see that subsurface cool pool out in the W pac upwell some more (probably sometime later this winter), we could see RONI catch up to ONI.
  20. CoastalWx
    Then later that month, we had the snow event with some more tree damage. That was a great month of Phil. October 2021 had the epic wind event. We need to make October great again.
  21. mitchnick
    I agree about the HR hitter coming to bat, but I don't think we can rule out other light or moderate chances with the advertised precip anomalies on all modeling.
  22. CT Valley Snowman
    There was some damage up here near the border, Enfield/Suffield/Granby area. I recall a burst of strong winds. We were right on the edge.
  23. GCWarrior
    I was just thinking about this yesterday. I'm glad someone started this thread. My favorite thread! Smuggs, Burke, Berkshire East and Catamount all owned by Bear Den partners now. Should be interesting to see what they do with Smuggs going forward.
  24. Interstate
    I will put this Sunday's rain on the tropical system though. I know by the time it reaches us, it will just be a low pressure system on a front, but it is still bring up tropical moisture.
  25. Tyler Penland
    I mean you can see the trough shearing it off on the left side this morning. It's not just going to bulldoze into that, and even if the "center" does technically move I don't think it will matter much after landfall- going to be a rapidly expanding moisture envelope. My biggest concern about rain is coastal convection cutting us off. I've noticed a weak low type thing on the hurricane models and now the globals a little bit trying to pop off the SC/GA coast. Could cut moisture flow off some.
  26. WinterWolf
    Ya…was gonna say, I have no recollection of that. But then I saw what you wrote about it being a Mass special.
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