Jump to content

All Activity

This stream auto-updates

  1. Past hour
  2. MidwestChaser
    Don't be so mean.
  3. Prismshine Productions started following Dewgust 2026: Summer's Last Stand
  4. Prismshine Productions
    Days are starting to get shorter, fall is lurking, and less than 5 months from Christmas, but Summer wants to remind everyone it is still summer. Dews For Days in the LR on both the GFS and EURO. Looking toasty. (really would have come up with something more consise but been dealing with a persistent migraine attack for the last week and a half) Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
  5. Prismshine Productions
    Ew Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
  6. Prismshine Productions
    0z GFS caved to the EURO: Southern Vermont Special Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
  7. OrdIowPitMsp
    Rapid City, SD set their all time record high temperature at both its recording stations today with records going back to 1888. 112 at KRAP, 110 downtown.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it's tough to convey your thoughts with surgical precision in an analog composite, but I hedged heavily throughout the narrative that confidence was much higher in a +NAO than +AO....at one point, I calculated the DJFM mean of the composite and the AO was almost dead-on neutral...barely positive.
  9. yoda
    https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/cache/205-2026/PNSLWX/c88b4b76421e8f7e48bd910a1aa7a19e Didnt see this posted yet
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    -H5 over Greenland may be a little too cold for the Winter I think. I have found that since 2012/13, the Summer SLP state 60-90N has reversed for the Winter AO almost every time! This worked out great last Winter. We have seen +AO pretty much every day since May and models have it for the next 15 days. I think this favors -AO tendency in the Winter.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny how that NW-SE slot of warmth in my composite is the polar (no pun intended) opposite of last year, which had the cold swath there.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    The AMO is pretty much the only aspect I didn't really touch on, though I supposed that isn't specifically connected to the polar domain, so that is probably best left for the actual outlook....but I do have that in the back of my head for colder risks. I def feel the correction vector for me is colder. Didn't December 2018 have a mid Atlantic snowstorm? I remember it missed me, but I think it nailed VA.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, I was speaking specifically of SSW....I understand that in general, the PV is weaker during El Niño.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    You are talking about SSW's, but if you include everything, total cold season 10mb (SSWs are probably like 10% of total composite) El Nino/-QBO trumps
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Did I say La Niña? Must have been a typo..where about?
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Very nice write up Ray! Good work. You should put that link in your signature. I was hoping for Winter forecast maps at the end of your post I see why you always refer to your outlooks, because you put so much thought into them! The only thing I would like to say is that in the mean -QBO/El Nino has the most 10mb warming, not La Nina/-QBO.
  17. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
    canada pharmacy reviews: EverNorth Pharmacy - canadian pharmacy tampa
  18. raindancewx
    I did find a site that has monthly AMO readings still. So we can do direct analogs for that again. At some point I'll compare it to the other AMO data and convert the recent winters to the old scale I have data setup for. The Atlantic is the coldest it has been in an El Nino since the 2010s - that's good for early season cold and storms diving further south generally than 2023-24. The 2018-19 El Nino actually had the AMO stay pretty low (near neutral) throughout winter/spring, and if you remember we had some storms in March powerful enough to set all-time low-pressure records in the interior West/Plains in that Spring. Was a fun pattern. In modern times, 2002-03, 2009-10 had the coldest AMO for El Nino. Atlantic is roughly a blend of 2015/2023, or 2018/2023 right now. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.amo.dat 2026 4 0.64 2026 5 0.70 2026 6 0.67 2023 4 0.94 2023 5 1.07 2023 6 1.27 2018 4 0.37 2018 5 0.33 2018 6 0.25 2015 4 0.29 2015 5 0.41 2015 6 0.40 2009 4 0.09 2009 5 0.11 2009 6 0.36 PDO is roughly a blend of 2015/2023 - https://psl.noaa.gov/pdo/data/pdo.timeseries.sstens.data
  19. Today
  20. NorthHillsWx
    73.4 for the high today. Incredible
  21. FPizz
    Yes. Another low in the 50s tonight, nice
  22. Torch Tiger
    vice versa
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Shit, I can't compete with that...should have done my homework-
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    My early look at the polar domain...pretty deep for a first hedge. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/07/preliminary-assessment-of-polar-domain.html Primary Polar Analogs: 1982-1983, 2015-2016 2026-2027 Polar Analog Composite:
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    0.54. 50% chance of DJFM NAO being within +0.54. I devised that in 2005, and since then have been 11-10 vs the std, so about where was originally estimated. 16-5 at getting the sign, + or - correct. Problem this year is I'm not going to be able to make exact numbers without Daily Climate composites. Maybe someone has a site of SSTAs for the whole period May-Sept?
  26. 40/70 Benchmark
    My early look at the polar domain...pretty deep for a first hedge. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/07/preliminary-assessment-of-polar-domain.html Primary Polar Analogs: 1982-1983, 2015-2016 2026-2027 Polar Analog Composite:
  27. 40/70 Benchmark
    @Stormchaserchuck1What did you say the SD of your formula is? .30? 70% of getting .30 within the outcome? @bluewaveDo you know where that post is that you made comparing past seasonal forecasts to reality? TIA.
  28. cyclone77
    Sioux City ASOS site hit 83 degree dewpoint earlier this evening, and hit 119 for heat index. Tremendous pool of 80+ degree dews from southwest MN down into northeastern KS.
  1. Load more activity
×
×
  • Create New...