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Why? I’m not going crazy. We look at long range guidance ITT every day. This is mainly a long range thread. I’d rather have the most up to date.

You will go crazy if you take every run verbatim . I wish the weeklies went back to weekly.

Where is the warmth ?

As per @GaWx research, 1983 did not have any stratospheric warmings in November or December. Furthermore, 1983 was a volcanic winter with a volcanic stratosphere; courtesy of a VEI-5 tropical eruption the year before in 1982. It was also a +QBO winter and a had a strongly +PDO

Yes, that's the thing many are a bit upset about, Models have expanded it's reach and extended a bit more over time Larry. Of course, that's the nature of these things as we know.

The individuals show extreme variability: torched or frigid. The means are blending the extremes and timing differences. I see hallmarks of the dreaded warm/wet (cutter) to dry/cold repetitive scenario: persistent ridge in southeast, hints of a trof out west, low heights across the Canadian Maritimes. I think it's a red flag that negative height anomalies never progress east into the Deep South. Your comment about a possible SWFE is a good one I think. I could see a few of them in succession if the day 10+ progs hold up... would seem to favor the north country.

yeah, was looking at that a couple days ago, actually. Thankfully, California is running way above normal for precip on the year.

The euro stuff he had. I think some gfs stuff is out there.

Today’s Euro Weeklies 2m temp changes vs yesterday aren’t good for the E US overall if you prefer cold: Dec 1-7: warmer SE to Mid-Atlantic due to even stronger SE ridge: Dec 8-14: ~unchanged Dec 15-21: warmer SE/very slightly warmer NE Dec 22-28: slightly warmer Mid-Atlantic/very slightly warmer SE: Dec 29-Jan 4: warmer NE

I don't think the pattern will continue into the end of December. There's a colder signal for then. There's not much to worry about right now, especially for the NE folks.

Warm will rule

Winter ? Its November 21. Dude stop posting please.

The 200mb VP anomalies?

For what it’s worth, the Euro AI has performed really well of late, including sniffing out the brief Thanksgiving cold shot followed by warmth, and it has below average temps up and down the EC by around the 5th. Goes to show it’s not all bad on the models but I still think sustained cold isn’t coming until we work into the mid month (maybe the 10th if we’re fortunate) timeframe. The teleconnections just aren’t there but phase 8 should be coming in to play by that juncture.

We were out in Gilford all afternoon and I said the same thing. Def a pre-snow event vibe to the clouds.

The winter is actively showing it's hand with that torch being forecasted first week of December. As many have posted about here, if you're on the east coast, warm Decembers in a nina are about the worst signal possible.

This map is a great one to show why snowlovers in the Great Lakes always prefer nina over nina.

12z euro really brings the cold later in this run . Dropping it out west and slowly moving it into our area along with some snow. Still battling that ridge in the east.

Today’s Euro Weeklies update on the SPV compared to last run keeps the reversal (or near reversal) but it’s a fair bit stronger Dec-early Jan. Keep in mind that the prior two runs were already significantly stronger for that period: Today’s EW mean zonal wind at 10 mb (11/21): significantly stronger than 11/18 run with, for example, 12/12 at +29 vs +11 on 11/18 run: EW run from just 3 days ago (11/18): 12/12 had been at only +11

There are times when we can have a very solid idea looking 2-3-4 weeks out but I don't think this is one of those. There is just way too much going on and too many complexities, especially in the short term on how some of the subtle features evolve. Part of it too is we are still in the seasonal transition across the hemisphere and often times that can enhance the battles within the models. But I just want to get a favorable pattern moving through December and have cold air available. The brunt of the cold doesn't need to be over us and the cold doesn't necessarily need to be locked in. If we get a favorable storm track with cold air nearby...we will cash in (maybe not so much for coastal areas early on). Having cold air in place or even nearby means nothing if the storm track sucks.

I lived in the Jersey Highlands 1950 to 1971, and never saw anywhere near that many oak leaves in the latter half of November. Oaks and Maples were the most common of the many tree species in the forests near home, mid-aged as most land there had been grazed into the late 1800s. Oaks I remember (long before forestry school so some guesswork) were Northern red, black, pin, white, swamp white and where glaciers had scraped the hilltops, chestnut oak. I'm confident that several other oak species were also in the mix.

Agree to the bolded 100%

It Pretty much comes down to…we just don’t/won’t KNOW…until very close in. What we do know, is there looks to be potential. But will it be realized?

Been thinking that all day, its had that look

Boy does it look like it wants to snow