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It would probably be occluded....those flashy low pressures don't always equate to the prevailing assumption.

26 / 25 and on the way to (for some) the months warmest highs in the mid / upper 40s, perhaps some of the warmest get to 50. Rain by the morning Friday and a warm Southerly flow gets most into the mid 50s and some to 60, with around an inch of rain. Colder Saturday starts a bit of a back and froth colder - Sat, warmer - Sun , colder - Mon /Tue. Then warmer overall by Christmas through around the 29th/30th with the eneext storm threat in the 30-31 period. Ridge builds in the center with the cold just into the northeast which means a day or two very warm in the period and some quick pull back colder. Beyond there looks near normal.

As usual great work and thanks again. Central park and LGA amounts stick out like a sore thumb lol.

There’s a lot of support for that look. La Nina (Jan), the EPS and GEFS forecasts for the NAO teleconnection are also aligned for deeply negative. The op runs signaling similar. Start worrying.

The big winds are about HFD SPD on east and inland.. away from the water

yeah soundings are quite inverted there. Looked like though there could be room for a line with thunder/lightning. Probably the only way to draw down any good gusts.

Very nice job. Can’t say I remember seeing this accumulation pattern before from a clipper. I didn’t notice any available models showing the NW heavy snow band from Sussex into Orange and surrounding areas.

Clippers are hard to get in southern Tenn. Northeast Tenn can benefit from them. Yeah a clipper can happen in Chinook but it'd be tough to get it down here. GaWx is right about the -NAO which could over-achieve northeast only - prolly more like NE USA. GaWx is a good follow even though mainly Southeast. Close enough his posts can be relevant here. Then I have to whine about how I miss clipper action growing up near KC. Felt like two storm tracks work, clipper and Colorado/SW low. Here it's gotta be near perfect with little margin for error. Guess that's what makes snow in the South special!

I said about a week ago that if there is to be any ATL blocking it helps if it’s NAO because we need the road blocked closer to us than Norway. Gimme a jack knifed semi with 50/50 and that can buckle PAC flow enough

Cape will be inverted I think.

I wouldn’t worry too much this far out. Just real interesting to see. That subtle shift west in the central Conus ridge hopefully helps to keep systems from shunting south.

It matches the teleconnection forecast. Not good.

some violence for the Cape on the 6z HRRR

Congrats Chatham and MVY. Never thought I’d say that in December lol.

Op runs go insane with the blocking in early January.

First season to date snowfall maps. This is as of December 17th, 2025. Reports are from cocorahs, COOP, and official climo sites. Contours are based on these reports and NOHRSC Gridded Snowfall Analysis. These are by far the hardest maps to put together so ill be doing them monthly similar to last season.

I'll be curious to see wind reports for my area this morning. My PWS doesn't pick up north winds well due to terrain, but it registered 39mph gusts, so I know it was higher than that. And my grill cover got blown off, and it's on quite tight.

Nothing can replace the CRAS. CRAS4LYFE

First season to date snowfall maps. This is as of December 17th, 2025. Reports are from cocorahs, COOP, and official climo sites. Contours are based on these reports and NOHRSC Gridded Snowfall Analysis. These are by far the hardest maps to put together so ill be doing them monthly similar to last season.

NOT hinting that this will happen, however, the setup COULD yield a storm like this. The storm tries to cut through New England however the blocking forces the storm just south.

18 this morning.

06z euro looks pretty nice for 12/23. A solid 1-3” deal for a lot of folks.

Definitely good trends overnight with a stronger NAO block. The operational models also hint at a coastal, albeit for areas south of us right now.