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If I'm not mistaken the perfect recipe for good fall foliage is about average amounts of precip with persistent cooler nights in early fall correct? Hopefully we get good foliage this time around, last year sucked cause of the drought.

You have to take a closer look at the seasons. This year looks more like 2007, a year that was (at this point in the season) skewed by one storm (Dean). It would later be skewed by a 2nd storm (Felix) later in August, but after that, from September on, we didn't get much more than a bunch of minor storms. Years like 2012, 2020, and 2021 were further along in the alphabet, and the signs were there for an active season. I'm really surprised the ACE values were that low for those years. I just don't see that this year. It looks more like 1992 (one-storm wonder) or 2007 (two-storm wonder). The next 2-4 weeks will tell us a lot more. If it isn't active, then you need to let it go. The season isn't suddenly going to get active in October and November. As they say, the tiger doesn't change stripes.

Narragansett is look'n pretty wavey: https://northeastsurfing.com/narragansett-cam/

Windy in Warren RI

Thanks as I missed those 60s dewpoints at KSAV Mon afternoon. So, I need to retract what I said about no dewpoints below the low 70s since June. Where I live is closer to the coast and thus typically has higher dewpoints, but not that much higher. Thus I just edited my earlier post for this correction. My point was that the bulk of the cool, dry airmasses of earlier August didn't reach down here. That I’m still saying has been the case.

H AND MH?

AL, 90, 2025082112, , BEST, 0, 171N, 555W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, SPAWNINVEST, al792025 to al992025, SPAWNINVEST, al792025 to al902025, OI LADS IT'S A SHITTY INVEST NOW

Gonna be chilly at Friday night football games

Ha... Erin looks on satellite the last hour to be moving due E. Can you imagine if this were 1984? You're all fluffed to the point of bursting over this hurricane set to rocket N in the modeling standard of the day, set to pummel the area ... replete with warnings and fever pitch. Only to have set your coffee down this morning, and turned on the TV to a satellite loop of it moving due E hahaha priceless That's what it was like in the 1980s ... the wah wah waahhhh decade. Winter storms too. At least with this thing y'all mo'fuggahs knew ( though some stubbornly ignored...) 8 days in advance that the pattern was completely a piece of shit.

this is our time of year for sure

Socked in low clouds/fog this AM. Lake side is the best side.

this plus all the winds and ragweed have caused my allergies to return, undoubtedly this is the worst weather of the entire year =\

this plus the allergies from the high winds and ragweed is what has my throat burning (even without it on).

5 year intervals was the point. I know there have been other storms in between

PD2 was better than ANY of those storms besides January 1996 and January 2016.

Nor should anyone ... ... But, if this winter behaves incongruently more so than "average weirdness" ( haha ), which again... was suggested by climate model/predictions all along ( so is not unprecedented in that sense, the rise in 'unpredictability') ... it's fair to consider the classical methods are becoming less reliable. There's a risk in reading these cautions in absolute dictation. Becoming is not become. Like I said, none of this forestalls the advent of bomb winter. These teleconnectors are not 1::1 ... never have been. They can't be. There are too many contributing forces, creating a huge polynomial, each one more and then less- so scaling the equations for influence does not result a consistent contribution from their individual parts from year to year. Within that noise, there is tendency, however, during these the last 10 years ( rather consistently...) to be "more noisy" lol for lack of better phrase. I'm aware of situational bias. But I'm considering that there are reasons that support the ongoing disruption/observations therein.

Caution Liberty, nycwinter may be on to something. As always …..

You forgot PD2, we had 26 inches of snow in that one. February 2006 was very minor compared to that (half the snow and 02-03 was one of our greatest winters ever and only wall to wall besides 95-96).

1.89" will do it for me. 3.58" for the month

What are the top 3 highest since 2007?

so wild, I think some places reached 100 degrees in 1983 in July, August AND September??? Can you check to see which ones did that-- I'm sure some place in Queens did as JFK hit 100 in both July and August in 1983 and 98 in September (NYC hit 99).

Gee ...any marine taint today ? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The peak heat in 2010 was focused in July like we typically see. The most unusual heat in 1983 was the record heatwave coming so late on September 10th-11th. Could be related to the drought which developed that summer. That may be the last time that Queens reached 100° so late in the season. Monthly Data for July 2010 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106 NJ HARRISON COOP 106 CT DANBURY COOP 104 NJ CRANFORD COOP 104 NY WEST POINT COOP 103 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 103 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 103 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 103 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 103 Data for September 10, 1983 through September 11, 1983 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 100 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 100 NJ CRANFORD COOP 99 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 99 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 99 NY WESTBURY COOP 99 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 98 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 98 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 98 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 98 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 98 NY WEST POINT COOP 98 NY GARNERVILLE COOP 98 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 98 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 98 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 98 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 98 Data for September 10, 1983 through September 11, 1983 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA PHILADELPHIA WBAN 102 NJ EWING 3 WNW COOP 101 MD CENTREVILLE COOP 100 MD CHESTERTOWN COOP 100 DE BRIDGEVILLE 1 NW COOP 100 DE NEWARK AG FARM COOP 100 DE MIDDLETOWN 3 E COOP 100 PA MARCUS HOOK COOP 100 NJ SHILOH COOP 100 DE WILMINGTON AIRPORT WBAN 100 PA DEVAULT 1 W COOP 100 PA READING 4 NNW COOP 100 NJ AUDUBON COOP 100 NJ LAMBERTVILLE COOP 100

Thanks, Don, I strongly suspect these have become more rare with time just like full length winters like 1995-96 and 2002-03 have become much more rare. 1953 and 1983 really jump out from this list as having the highest frequency of such months.