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  2. forkyfork
    so let's talk about what's actually happening now
  3. MJO812
    Models were took quick with the insane El Nino ?
  4. roardog
    On top of that, a model forecast for a strong +IOD in late summer and fall isn’t exactly a sure bet.
  5. LoboLeader1
    Currently 87F here. DP 67%, RH 60 as of 10AM.
  6. The Iceman
    I think someone in the area hits 100 today. My forecast point and click jumped to a high of 99. All time May high temp is 97F for PHL, KRDG, KABE and 99F for TTN, ILG, and KACY. The daily hi records for today might be broken at every single station in the CWA.
  7. dendrite
    BML had a low of 47° and went from 53° to 84° in 3 hours.
  8. weatherwiz
    3km liking southern VT/NH into northern ORH County today
  9. dendrite
    Yeah I swear every 10 mins when I refresh my station it’s up another degree. 81.1° and there’s still soggy spots in the yard. 10am ASH and FIT gone wild
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what I was driving at.....the very strong +IOD didn't prevent the La Nino in 2023, so how can we be confident that it will this year....
  11. HoarfrostHubb
    It has happened before. Highest temp in May (maybe even April for someone on here one year?)
  12. HoarfrostHubb
    I was thinking that might be the case for me
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, you could do that with any period....add March in and winter wasn't that cold.
  14. HoarfrostHubb
    85 at home, 85 at work before 10AM Let's add 10!!!
  15. Typhoon Tip
    86 to 88 at 10 am in the local area. Looking at higher res vis sat, clouds don't appear to be an option. Very low wind to offer ventilation... Does this solitary afternoon end up being the biggest heat of the summer?
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course, I'm just saying it's a consideration. I used to be oppose to it, but have started incorporating it a bit.
  17. Typhoon Tip
    Hilarious ... thing is, ...I wondered that last winter. Seriously. I mean, I ask and ask and looked it up, and no one/source could give me a clear a-b-c, much less impression, about how these tools derive their values. Looked suspiciously like derivatives have nothing to do with it. Anyway, perhaps there's something about their "mechanics" that is more than lesser known these days. Haven't followed thru. But I tongue-in-cheek mused that these AI tools were just Google on steroids, going out and reading the entire Internet cloud, where there's obviously a fairly large/significant influence statistic of Ineedsnow mongers ... That would explain why the snow was always farther N-W ... etc haha.
  18. GaWx
    I’m not @snowman19but I can tell you based on the link below that 2023 was similar to 1997 in having a very strong +IOD. 2018 was next and then 1994. 1972, 1982, 2006, and 2015 were next (still moderately strong). Keep in mind: -There’s been a decided longterm rise of the IOD in this table. So, it isn’t adjusted for long term trends. That’s why 2018 had such a strong +IOD despite El Niño being weak. -IOD tends to peak ~Oct-Nov and falls off in winter, especially when strongly positive in autumn. So when moderate to strong +IOD in SON, it about always has had a notably lower DJF vs SON. https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data
  19. dendrite
    AI learning what the people want
  20. kdxken
  21. kdxken
    86 in the woodyard. Umbrella up.
  22. Stormlover74
    Low chance
  23. Itstrainingtime
    That storm moved NE out of Centre County and the core probably missed you just to your southeast. My wife and I were sitting outside last night watching the lightning show from over 100 miles away.
  24. Brian D
    Looks like for the rest of May, the areas that really need the precip should see some improvement.
  25. MJO812
    Yes but there are also other factors. Either way , this will be a milder winter than last winter. No doubt about that. That could be a good thing since suppression will most likely not be an issue. I will take my chances with that even if its snow to rain events.
  26. high risk
    There arguments against it (rising heights, dubious trigger) are legit, but it's tough to ignore that most CAMs have at least a couple of cells. I think that today warrants a 20% PoP.
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