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In DC proper we missed the mid-December event and had to wait for a bit, but once we turned the page to January it was amazing.

Here in Worcester it was a half white Christmas. Snow is patchy, but probably still has majority coverage.

Yeah it was a legendary winter in the colder suburbs of DC/Baltimore, went all the way from early December to the end of March and by the end even I was sick of the cold, which almost never happens. I consider it a close second to 2009-10 where I’m from in the mid-Atlantic.

Stupid post

Down to 11.7/6 here. Could be well below zero tonight. Wind chill already below zero.

who said that ?

Over/under 300 more people are going to die now because of this warning vs. advisory blunder?

Fair enough just trying to get reasoning not looking for confrontation

Because the nws forecast is 3 to 5. An advisory level event

The 18z is a jailbreak pattern after 300 in fantasy land. It pretty much mirrors the GEM runs, but about a week later. I think modeling just isn't sure which cold front to send the cold with...we noted that yesterday or this morning. Good trends, but a ways to go.

I am posting all of these because there is such disagreement on amounts and locations of..

she's wishcasting because she lives in Northeastern Connecticut lol

That’s for Eastern Garrett County. Where our places are won’t see that much ice…reserved for east of the Cont divide.

68/69

Looking at things a bit...most of the modeling seems to have good ratios in the SW 1/3 of CT back to about POU and into LI. There's good omega in that H5-6 layer where the max DGZ is even though that warm nose/fronto tries to punch in around H7 in NYC metro. The lift tails off pretty quickly N and E of there. Maybe a period of 12-15:1 avg ratios in that max zone and then stick closer to 10-12:1 near a DDH-PVD line. Whoever gets in on the fringes in that 0.15" or less area is likely battling the low level RH and having some of the crystals getting eaten up a bit. Maybe a little OES enhancement along the Cape too? Here's a little x-section from the 3k nam for tomorrow evening. I'll be lucky to get a flurry here. That wind is roaring right now too...have had a few 35mph gusts on the Davis which is probably more like 45mph with better siting.

what makes you think that ?

whoever lives closest

Tomorrow to me now looks more like an annoyance than a winter major issue for the HBG. Some sleet - maybe .5” - and maybe a little zr at the end late Friday night. And perhaps fine until 4-5 pm.

We have very similar thoughts on this. But you’ve been consistent since multiple days ago…took me a few days to catch on

Shove actual accumulation 30 to 50 miles north. Reality.

The 18z GFS continues on its own solution path. But it kind of still manages to get to where other models are by about Jan 6. For those who are enjoying Alaska extreme runs...That is a -85.4 reading. And the EPO ridge pops....all of that is headed for the Canadian Prairies. It modifies quickly as it heads south and east...but that is the ticket if you want winter.

Which one of you is going to the park to take some measurements with photos? Somebody, c'mon now.

Why ?

You have to realize not everyone is in tune with the meanings of weather terms BUT Winter Storm Warning comes across more seriously than just an Advisory to most folks.

January 2010 was a ridiculously cold month with nothing to show for the cold until the end. Then look what happened.