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imby/Columbia: Overnight Fri/Sat a.m. low 20.9 6am temp 22.9

Looks like some of you played some drinking games last night.

After a bitter cold stretch from late January through early February, who doesn't love a welcomed warmup for #ValentinesDay and the days following? Asking for a friend. #PAwx

https://x.com/nwsburlington/status/2021912422211366936?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

from NWS this morning: The other tricky aspects of the fcst include: relatively warm boundary layer/road temps, precip rates/banding, onset timing, elevation, and wet bulb effects. Without going to far into the weeds, the key takeaway for this cycle is that odds have increased on the margin for accumulating wet snowfall across south central and particularly southeast PA Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. The largest % chance increase is for areas to the east of I-81 with WPC, RRFS, and NBM showing low to moderate chances (30-50%) of snowfall totals >1 inch. The official NDFD fcst initialized off of the 14/01Z NBM is likely a bit too low at this point and would anticipate/front-run an uptick in POPs and snow amounts to be more in the C-1" range with the next cycle. There is the potential for additional changes to this forecast in the next 12-24 hours so continue to monitor especially for possible early Monday morning commute impacts.

Just had a brief a grauple shower here.

Let me rephrase. Of course we will continue to solve problems. The ones that will be difficult to solve will: be complex, need a political solution, have vested interests that hinder a solution, and which are beyond the experience or understanding of most people, i.e., subject to misinformation.

PNA has a NAO correlation in late Feb/March, so it seems more neutralized than it really is if there is no NAO help.

The phase happens in the ocean. Just need it to phase further west. Its not far off.

Dont care what your opinion is. But dont post bs.

No it’s not

Gfs

WB 6Z GFS

Yup that was 8 days with high temperatures in the 10s we just had! It snowed south of Tampa. It used to rain all the time mid Winter in the 1960s and 70s.

Something is wrong with AI models

NYC will not see an inch out of this storm. That's my forecast.

WB 6Z 3K NAM: at least enough rain to wash away some salt and grime.

Do you know how to read and interpret a computer model?

Sun angle?

Sun angle and also it's 40 degrees.

Rgem much further north but still a miss. Almost there.

It's a PNA/EPO issue, which I guess you could say is a PDO issue. We just had one of our coldest mid-Winter stretches on record... AGW stuff right now is just complaining. Feb/March has been the same anomaly in the Pacific for 9 straight years. Let's figure out why!

Icon improved

https://x.com/i/status/2022415363200446615

NAM