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If you put this EPS in motion prior to the 360hr link below, the SER is getting squashed. Also, AO region looks good. Plus, beyond this period, the Eps extended shows movement into 8. Still not high confidence on the MJO, but Cfs2, which is an extension of the Gefs, has the MJO in 8 too. So there's evidence of positive steps in December, which is better than the opposite. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025112200&fh=360

Yesterdays 6z guidance didn’t even have rain here.

Fully nude ready to do leaves all day. Looking forward to a few crisp Pilsners and loud power tools all afternoon. .

Low of 46 with .26” of rain.

Unfortunately I think you're correct. Today is orientation day for the seasonal workers at Wisp and I'm getting the pbp of a seriously dour ski season outlook. They are warning folks they may not be able to provide 40 hours per week due to their forecast of a subpar season, much like 22-23. East of the Mississippi and south of I-90, there isn't even any fantasy snow to look at. I'm well aware of the calendar date today but I'm also well aware flashing red lights rarely become green arrows.

I remember seeing AI much further north and was thinking it was wrong. Let’s replace us all with machines baby.

Found @Jis burner account

Overnight GFS showing a rapid strengthening of the polar vortex after this episode. Yikes.

0.3”ish for me. Next Tuesday looks like the last rain of the month and probably another pretty light event.

That's at odds with the end of the EPS. You're posting a 1.5 day old model.

Of course thats a - EPO and its certainly not a western trough. Youre not going to have a - NAO when the polar vortex is in Eastern Canada . Also , this isnt a torch in 2nd week of December.

Tv Mets no rain past cape .

Nope. 12z had nothing yesterday.

0.14" overnight, 0.87" on the month. Continuing to be very dry.

It had rains to the pike

I like seeing High pressure set up in southern Quebec to feed in the cold.

Man let’s get these busts in winter.

Gfs had nothing yesterday. AI ftw

Mann Canada is cold on the guidance. Let the highs build down and the CJ‘s began after the first week of December.

Actually, that was a nice coastal. We take that.

That's a major +NAO. The cold anomalies are from -EPO that happens days before. By the end of the run, it's neutralizing and more of a -PNA is trying to build. There is a few day lag between the evolving Pacific pattern and US Temps. It's pointing to an above average 2nd week of Dec. At 384hr you can already see the SE ridge trying to build.

that is why i will move to new england when i get the chance

.40" in the gauge this am, most in a 24 hour period this month and brings monthly total to 1.03". Quite warm for a late November morning, 56.5/55.6 with rain continuing to fall.