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Forget the concept of CC for a minute. The planet doesn’t care about squabbles based on how humans define things. It just responds to the actual temperatures. So the headline story for the planet right now is that we are exceeding past super El Niño events by a wide margin and it’s still only early October.

So anything that dares to minimize CC can't be better. Typical coming from the paid CC spokesman, Ben Knoll.

I would lock in. The energy futures market for natural gas, heating oil, electricity is pretty nuts out to next year. Every 3rd party electricity supplier in New England is like $15-20 more a month right now for rates. Eversources standard supplier rates are currently much cheaper until the price adjustment hits in Dec. Its pretty much guaranteed there will be huge increases coming this winter as usually 3rd party electricity suppliers are much cheaper.

The old ONI that we used before the recent updates was also +2.1. It’s perfectly fine to use the ONI as a measurement of the actual intensity of the event. With an event as extreme as this RONI can make the event seem weaker than it actually is. https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2105084471750037987 From a scientific perspective, part of the challenge is that weather patterns in different parts of the world are not equally sensitive to the same El Niño index. In South America, for example, Niño 1+2 is particularly important, while patterns across the U.S., Australia, Singapore and many other regions are more closely associated with conditions in Niño 3.4. Some rely on a blend of ocean-atmosphere indicators (e.g., ONI, RONI, SOI, EQSOI, OLR, MEI, etc.) to capture coupling. For the public, the minutiae of those indices matter much less. What's record-breaking in one index may not be record-breaking in another, and I think it's incumbent on the communicator to make that clear. At the very least, if a record is being claimed, then a reference to the index/data set being used is essential (see attached). Not everyone will read the fine print, but it's duty of care. I think there's an opportunity for a larger body to step in (e.g., WMO) to classify a record El Niño event, if there's sufficient evidence, like they would a global temperature record. Lastly, I think the RONI-ONI debate will go on for years. RONI is more closely tied to atmospheric responses. ONI informs absolute extremes. In the ONI space, every tenth of a degree matters to global water vapor levels and temperatures, and therefore, the weather. The best approach is up for debate, but I think showing both is a fair balance. One El Niño, many ways to measure it! https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2105064342441939064 On the other hand, if you are trying to communicate the absolute strength of this El Niño vs other historic El Nino’s, how global warming has impacted it, or how it may impact global temperatures in the coming months - then use the traditional ONI or raw sea surface temperature anomalies. Certainly it can be confusing to the public, but I’d argue the relative index inadvertently obscures the larger climate signal - it can be misleading because it basically subtracts the warming that has occurred in recent decades. So it’s unintentionally deceptive.

Rinse and repeat, rainfall in central NC not going to amount to nearly the totals we were expecting all week: Given the mesoscale and subsequent nrn stream influences noted above, precipitation amounts have trended lower across model guidance in the past 24 hours for cntl NC, particularly over the Piedmont.

Yes, compensated by more NHEMI warmth in the US, and the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific this year. The antarctic had a bigger impact on global and SHemi temperatures than the arctic because it has strong anomalies and its influence extends to nearby sea ice and ocean.

bring on winter

It will probably hit 72 in December

It will only take one well-timed cold air mass amidst all that moisture = massive snowstorm. Strong Nino winters can offer up opportunities for substantial snows.

I was gonna say plenty of arctic air but near perfect track. DC scores a major winter storm with about a foot of snow. It might be a wetter snow but its snow. Even in a strong Nino winter.

I know that TSSN, but the southwest thread people are all laconic and don't care about rain. I actually do not belong in Texas. I belong in southeast DC. It's way too dry here. Meanwhile, in other news earlier today, I got stranded at a 7-11 for 90 minutes, because of heavy rain. I had to hide the car under a gas station roof because my roof leaks lol. Yeah, I got plenty of rain today lol. We got 2 inches of rain from this storm cycle. We are up to 40.4 inches of rain on the year. I STILL crave a 12 C El Nino and I still want so much rain that the 1626/967 Intersection in north Buda gets covered up with 45 feet of Plum Creek water and I get to jebwalk around the flood zone getting live water level readings ! "This is Jebman, reporting to you all LIVE, where we just got 27 inches of El Nino enhanced rain and we now have a catastrophic 230 year flood here in Buda, TX in which I have measured 45 feet of rushing water across the Rt 1626/Rt967 Intersection! The gas station has been completely washed away, even the foundations! We lost the entire shopping center too! I nearly got swept away because when I was getting my water level observations, there was a surge and I couldn't limp away fast enough. Thankfully one of my friends here managed to snag me inches from a sure death! This is a fun flood, but everyone needs to stay away from this intersection! Earth sides are still caving in. Huge construction equipment nearby has been swept down as well! Some of these are huge earthmovers. The new renovated Buda Sports Complex has been devastated. I am not even sure I can get back up the hill to where I live because the entire area is collapsing because of all the runoff lol. I'll get back to you all with more updates!"

Ah they finally have it for Android. Thanks Tyler.

I do apologize if I came in hot-headed, but the storm last weekend was highly anomalous. We are doing something for the Tri-State Conference this weekend coming up on 10/10. (Yeah, I went to WCSU). Please, please register. Weather weenies weeny-ing out is always a good time, in-person. I’d like to meet the faces to the board monikers, and arguably save the dept. 10/10/26. 30 dollars and you get breakfast and lunch on top of “shooting the breeze” with fellow nerds. Doesn’t happen often, I just hope it isn’t the last from a budget perspective (The foliage should be quite nice), regardless.

403 I didn’t think Campbell would be a good but I didn’t expect the defense to be that atrocious. His main guys retired instead of following him though and they were the straws that stirred ISU. Hope they get better fast for all the great, loyal fans like you.

October snows are a bad omen

Lock it in!

thanks for the feedback ensonerd1233e343