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I think the warm Xmas puns a play off the warm December that is expected....I don't think anyone it honestly trying to forecast down to the day at 3 months out.

I don't think you are paying enough attention to antecedent conditions...of course the summer of 2015 was more redolent of El Niño....it came off of....an El Niño with a huge +PDO. You are also misunderstanding what I am saying when I compare to 2015...not just talking about the intensity of the GOA low, but also the degree of MC influence. There is probably a connection, but it's not 1:1. I doubt we see more MC influence than 2015.

Missing the good stuff. 0.01". Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

DC might be better at sports than we are at December snow.

Yea but 82/76 which is what I’m at now is really gross.

Indeed, the weighted avg of your graph, which looks like it is only ~+1.25 to 1.5, doesn’t at all jibe with the image below, which shows it ~+3.3:

Yeah IDK just thinking out loud one way I could see it go without too much thought. Actually, the -PDO October might be the best fit for that north Pacific and NA look advertised if we reverse this color scheme accordingly. I'm curious what happens that month as we're really getting into autumn at that point. Not much confidence one way or another.

Gfs has rain all week next week for the NYC area

I honestly don’t think I’ve ever seen one around these parts.

Misery Mist, useless.

18z gfs folds. Wet times ahead

The talks of getting to 90F quickly faded today. .

The last week of month and then into Oct does not look cool.. at all

4.49" on the east side of Huntington since around 10 PM Tuesday evening, 5.11" for the month. I believe that average for FWA for Sept. is only around 3.1".

92 for the high.

Sunday is perfection?

Historically warm Nino 1+2 in Oct doesn't look like that. Winter, yes, not october based on the last 73 years. I'd say the H5 model you are posting is more opposite than similar in the n. pacific

Sitting at 6.07" of rain in Fort Wayne at my wx station, north of the city. Unreal for September! Miss the blue skies and zzzs we normally get this time of year.

Could today have been the last 80 or higher degree day for Central Park this year?

0.10” so far but mod rain Looks pretty cool after Friday with a lot of NE flow next week.

Ha. I don’t have issues with them although I did have one that was way past ripe and it left me feeling buzzed. Baking with them can definitely give you GI issues. Where did you get yours?

This GOA low starting to show up as we roll into October. It's kind of something similar to what one would expect to see showing up during el nino in October. Ensembles advertising this look to start out the month. One could say The Aleutian low is simply biased east from the following composite. Thinking that might very well be a plausible idea given the east based nature of this particular event. In addition to the residual state of the north Pacific but let's see how that entire month verifies and evolves. If we envision a roadmap purely from the nino composite, we should see that low eventually retrograde and the ridge just west of the dateline get squashed.

@dendrite I've been eating paw paws all week, awesome !! Make you regular as can be