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  2. frontranger8
    Not "entirely wrong" lol, ok I'll take it. That map shows exactly what I said.
  3. Bob Chill
    Love this dog photo Took a walk up Smith Mountain WMA yeaterday. Elevation on this pic is around 1800. Still some late green but scenic
  4. frontranger8
    See above.
  5. nrgjeff
    Chart is on the previous page. Strato warming is more likely to dump on Europe. I truly hope I'm wrong for the sake of Ukraine. Anyway SSWs typically impact Europe first. Esp now we also got a Scandinavia block. I'd love to be wrong. Maybe instead of a true PV split it'll just jostle and reflect for North America. If Europe first, and warm Eastern USA, I'll take severe wx thanks. We need the rain. Hope to see y'all in the severe thread soon!
  6. nrgjeff
    Well we are starting to get a proper pressure signal in Asia, but the snow is AWOL. Pressure chart is below; pink circle is mine. Snow is not worth posting. Noth America screams, vortex is bottled up. No cold up there and no mechanism to deliver anyway. Continue very mild forecast at my shop.
  7. psv88
    Hopefully never
  8. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  10. Daniel Boone
    I don't quite buy that . Hopefully the SSW will be shaking things up by then. If so, there should be somewhat different look to Canada and the Northern Lats.
  11. donsutherland1
    El Niño Regions 1+2 (+5.4C anomaly) and 3 (+4.4C anomaly) set new weekly records for the week centered around October 28th. Region 3.4 (+3.4C anomaly) tied its weekly record that had been set during the prior week. Despite some social media chatter of a "weakening" El Niño, the ongoing event is continuing to strengthen. It will likely peak this month or next month. It will also likely be the dominant influence on the hemispheric pattern for December, January and maybe February. The biggest wildcards concern whether meaningful blocking develops late in the winter (possibly allowing for one big snowstorm as occurred during 1982-83 and 2015-16), the degree and rate of weakening following El Niño's November/December peak, and whether the stratospheric polar vortex will recover from the forecast sudden stratospheric warming event then lock in for much of the winter. Yesterday's November monthly record rainfall in parts of Arizona, including Flagstaff where records go back to 1898, and today's extreme rainfall in parts of Florida have been, in part, aided by El Niño's enhanced moisture and subtropical jet. This aspect is likely to play out throughout much of the winter with a high degree of confidence. Artwork generated to illustrate El Niño's rising impact.
  12. forkyfork
    use older averages and that blue disappears
  13. forkyfork
    you said february and march
  14. cmillzz
    He's not entirely wrong, but what's really striking is how much warmer the East has gotten over the past decade or so.
  15. Guest

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  16. Torch Tiger
    How about that 2/1877...folks would be livid if the first 22 days of a wintr month were Steined
  17. frontranger8
    Here's February over the last dozen years. Keep in mind the baseline goes back 35 years. Seattle's snowfall in February the past 10 years has been more than double their long term mean. This includes their snowiest February on record (2019) and their third snowiest (2021). https://wrcc-archive.dri.edu/WRCCWrappers.py?sodxtrmts+457473+por+por+snow+none+msum+5+07+F
  18. MJO812
    Bamwx still likes mid to late November for a colder pattern in the east.
  19. A-L-E-K
    if you're a snow lover of means and want to see something next level, now is the time to book that high sierra ski trip, sure looks like it's going to be epic
  20. cmillzz
    March, April, September, and October all made the top five warmest at KIND this year, with April and September claiming the top spot. Pretty insane stuff.
  21. nycwinter
    another perfect weather day with pleasant temps when will this end?
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    I don't even think it will be the warmest November this decade. 2020, 2022, and 2024 set the bar so high. Early returns tell me it won't be as warm as those years.
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  24. frontranger8
    Brilliant. Thankfully, it can still get cold enough to snow.
  25. forkyfork
    citation needed
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