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My point was despite any warming, last year's Niña was pretty canonical. This year's Niño can still happen by either the PDO coming around or the Niño overwhelming it. And when you consider all the seasonal models are pretty well aligned to one, odds favor it short of a total failure of all seasonal modeling.

Does anyone else have acorns coming down ? Medium sized green ones . Started a few weeks ago and getting worse which means anger

The first half of June+first half of July would have ranked as the 10th warmest such period. The second half of June + second half of July would rank as the 51st coolest such period (mean temperature: 74.0°; 2009 with a mean temperature of 68.0° is the coolest such period).

I was hoping to read a post from you again before I transition. Stay well, you’re already blessed. As always …..

Here in East Nantmeal July finished with a slight 0.3 below normal average temperature for the month. This was the 4th below average month across our first 7 months of 2026. I will have the Chester County wide month summary later today. We turn a bit more humid today with rain chances again increasing by tomorrow night and lasting through much of the upcoming work week. No total washouts but a chance at some much-needed rainfall for areas who missed the beneficial rains last week.

@Gawx Over/under that the MEI is already at or above +2 given the current obs of the parameters it measures? If so, given that those parameters are projected to only get stronger the next few months, I think we set a new MEI record (old record: +2.9)…..

Here in East Nantmeal July finished with a slight 0.3 below normal average temperature for the month. This was the 4th below average month across our first 7 months of 2026. I will have the Chester County wide month summary later today. We turn a bit more humid today with rain chances again increasing by tomorrow night and lasting through much of the upcoming work week. No total washouts but a chance at some much-needed rainfall for areas who missed the beneficial rains last week.

Well yeah, but that's a totally different animal from today. That's in sync with the PDO. This El nino is out of sync. That makes all the difference and I can try to make a post later as to why. I never had any problem with la nina's. Weak to moderate enso of either sign historically can treat me well locally. It's neutral or very strong events I'm not overly fond to see. Here's a picture from the blizzard this past winter. Ended up with 2 feet.

Stumbling around, delirious from thirst.

I knew all about it since it’s local, on Thursday I was driving home and saw one of the jets in the distance and thought: cool, the weather is finally decent enough for them to practice. Then a favorite song came on the radio and I started cranking it, windows down, lost in the song if you will and as I got to the bottom of the hill here in the park they buzzed the park completely drowning out my blasting music and quite honestly startled the shit out of me. If I had a cup of coffee I would've spilled some on my shirt and I would've wanted some butts! (Top Gun reference).

Dew dew dew da da da da !!

Looks dewlicious next week. Maybe a small break Tuesday and Wednesday.

With the black bear that knocks over his bird feeder?

Heat domes aren't new. But the warming background climate has made even relatively ordinary heat domes much hotter than they were decades ago. Regional patterns coupled with a wetter climate has likely contributed to the recent absence of long-duration heatwaves in parts of the Northeast.

He found one in the bathtub trying to turn the spigot on?

In 4 short months we’ll be talking how winter is a bust due to lack of snow in November and and first two weeks of December.

I’ll die on this hill, the PDO is going to be weak positive by the end of met fall

It’s so bad they’re trying to get after things like the tipping bucket to find water?

Enjoy the sweat, it’s the only sweat you got.

Looking for water? None around

Almost like June, very warm first half of the month, not so much the 2nd half. I bet if you put the first half of June with the first half of July, it would be close to a record warm month, and if you put the 2nd half of June with the 2nd half of July, it would probably be a Top 10 coldest month.

Fairly average July temperatures due to the much warmer 1991-2020 means across the area. Plus the record smoke for July shaved a bit off the averages and prevented another run over 100°. Several spots came close to their all-time highs earlier in the month. So one of our more unusual Julys of the 2020s. EWR…0.0 LGA….-0.5 JFK….+0.6 NYC….-1.1 ISP…….-0.6 BDR….-0.9 HPN…..-0.2 Avg….-0.4 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 107.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 106.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 106.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 3 104.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 108.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 105.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 105.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 - 105.0 1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10 - 105.0 1993-07-08 through 1993-07-08 - 105.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 105.0 1953-09-02 through 1953-09-02 - 105.0 1949-07-04 through 1949-07-04 - 105.0 1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07 3 104.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18 - 104.0 1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15 - 104.0 1993-07-09 through 1993-07-09 - 104.0 1936-07-09 through 1936-07-09 4 103.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 103.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 103.0 2021-06-30 through 2021-06-30 - 103.0 2011-07-21 through 2011-07-21 - 103.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 103.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 - 103.0 1993-07-07 through 1993-07-07 - 103.0 1954-07-31 through 1954-07-31 - 103.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 - 103.0 1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10 - 103.0 1911-07-03 through 1911-07-03 - 103.0 1901-07-02 through 1901-07-02 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 107.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 2 104.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 104.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 - 104.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 3 103.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 103.0 1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15 - 103.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 4 102.0 2006-08-02 through 2006-08-02 - 102.0 1953-09-02 through 1953-09-02 5 101.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 101.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 101.0 2017-06-13 through 2017-06-13 - 101.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18 - 101.0 2010-07-07 through 2010-07-07 - 101.0 1999-07-06 through 1999-07-06 - 101.0 1991-07-20 through 1991-07-20 - 101.0 1966-07-02 through 1966-07-02 - 101.0 1957-07-22 through 1957-07-22 - 101.0 1952-06-26 through 1952-06-26 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 2 103.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 3 102.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 102.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 102.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 102.0 2011-07-23 through 2011-07-23 - 102.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 - 102.0 1963-07-01 through 1963-07-01

Idk, last year's Niña was pretty standard for Niñas with snows along the east coast and cold.

Gonna miss him when Cade Povich gets the ball every 5 days

Forgot all about the air show until i saw a thunderbird over the hudson lol