All Activity

You'll get plenty of rain. Remember, Washington DC does massive, brobdingnagian rain events like a boss.

We’d-Friday look to be in the low to mid 60’s here for highs.

Don't let that weak Nina get to you. Mid Atlantic will still have plenty of snow and frigid Vodka-Cold weather. You're gonna need a bigger shovel.

Been getting steady moderate rain here the last hour or so. Just hit 0.50". Pleasantly surprised.

Light rain, .02" haha

Put the long range GFS away . Even own ensembles don’t agree . You fall in love with with ops

Some evening analysis

Really fortunate this a tie game. Kudos to the defense. Offensive line getting dog walked.

Although the convection is weak and disorganized, recon is now showing a much more well defined circulation, which if it holds will allow for gradual organization. Note how much tighter the circulation is in the image above, compared to some of the recon images posted earlier. You can also see a pocket of slightly stronger winds on the far eastern side of the system. Below you can see how the circulation is becoming better organized. Slowly. Convection is weak, but there has been some firing of stronger thunderstorms near the center. Shear has remained an issue through the day, but analysis shows that the shear may be abating, especially near the center. TD9 is in one of the best thermal environments in the entire Atlantic, so if it can start generating deep convection over its tightening center it should gradually intensify. While I am posting the SHIPS here, there looks to have been a bit of an uptick from hurricane guidance in overall intensity over the coming days. That's something we'll need to pay attention to, with the caveat that the trough and possible dry air will continue to lurk and will likely put a cap on intensity. Now for the track. There is increasing confidence that future Imelda will in fact turn away from the SE coast, but there is still a lot of uncertainty on how close the center gets to the coast and critically, the speed of the turn. Most guidance now turns the system away from the coast and accelerates it east into an Humberto created weakness. But within this evolving track forecast there are two diverging camps. The first, and most numerous, is one that easily follows Humberto out to sea. The second, which is led by the Euro and Euro AI to an extent, turns the system more slowly and allows a ridge to build over the top and close the escape route. The result is Imelda being turned back toward the coast. There aren't a lot of members that are held back, but the ones that do are pretty strong. So while it very well may be the case that this does turn and accelerate out to sea, there's still uncertainty. Remember, the models struggled with this inside of 100 hours. I'm not sure we should be locking in anything 5+ days out yet. Additional recon and finally having a well defined center should help with both track and intensity guidance. Finally, just because this is likely to stay offshore initially, that doesn't mean no impacts. TS force winds, coastal flooding, and flash flooding are still squarely hazards for coastal FL, GA, and the Carolinas. Just slight track changes could make the flood threat more impactful along the coast.

Well the models backed off. I was surprised to see anything

Yes, in a few towns. Most aren't seeing anything. Maybe overnight, but I have some doubts.

Strange stall

This has been very underwhelming.

0.68", picked up 0.4" in the past hour

there's no february 19-20 redux dude. we're not talking about a blizzard, we're talking about a hurricane.

have you looked at a model?

Its raining right now

Must be clear air mode

Looks like rain changes are nil for most tonight. What are all of those spots all over the radar? Doesn't look like typical rain. Radar glitch?

Anyone getting any precip from that blob crossing 78?

Might hit 0.05” at this rate

By the way I do think some of the stuff with processed food is an addiction, my parents were big on eating healthy so I never got why some people just can't eat normal food. But I've been told by people who have been eating highly processed food since they were little that they can't even digest vegetables. It didn't make sense to me but then I read this. Mr. Moss was able to obtain documents that support this entire story. Michael Moss stated, “What I found, over four years of research and reporting, was a conscious effort — taking place in labs and marketing meetings and grocery-store aisles — to get people hooked on foods that are convenient and inexpensive.” Mr. Moss interviewed over 300 people who had been involved, or were still involved, with the food industry. In this article, he relays examples of how certain foods were formulated to make products irresistible to consumers. Foods that he mentioned in the magazine article were Dr. Pepper soft drink, Prego spaghetti sauce, Lunchables with dessert, the line extension for Lay’s potato chips, and several other major processed foods. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/04/26/990821079/cheap-legal-and-everywhere-how-food-companies-get-us-hooked-on-junk

Imagine if that was snow, WW3 would have started lol

I'm bitter about the massive bust that was Thursday haha

70’s Fri thru weekend . Never ending summer modeled