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2026-2027 Super El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
While the CanSIPS hasn’t had much skill with long range ENSO 500 mb patterns and temperatures over the CONUS, it will be interesting to see if it has some clue about the SST configuration. Notice how the much warmer the Indio-Pacific warm pool becomes following this super event than it initializes at the current time. My guess is the big baseline global temperature jump it has warms the SSTs. There is some cooling immediately near Japan. But the warm pool gets pushed a little east. Also notice how much warmer the Atlantic basin becomes. Also noticed the CFS runs doing something similar with the SSTs. The ENSO region would probably be the strangest look of all. Notice how skinny the developing La Niña cold tongue is by next June around the Galápagos Islands. It’s surrounded by continuing Nino-like waters just off equator. -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
pawatch replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
72 for the low, DP 71 kind of mixed feelings about temperatures yesterday. Under my deck which is completely shaded 90 degrees. My other sensor which is partially in the sun was reading 102. The NWS said high was 91 which I’m not really sure that’s right. Stay hydrated theses next few days! -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Low of 71. Let’s see how many Ben Franklins we can count the next few days. Stay cool everyone. -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
mahantango#1 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
US issues emergency order for PJM Interconnection as heatwave looms By Thomson ReutersJun 30, 2026 | 5:14 PM June 30 (Reuters) – The U.S. Department of Energy on Tuesday declared an emergency across the nation’s largest power grid, citing soaring demand and supply risks as extreme heat grips the region. In an order issued under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act, the energy secretary said a statutory emergency exists in PJM interconnection’s region due to a combination of surging electricity demand and limited generation capacity. PJM submitted a formal request on June 29, warning of an “imminent electricity reliability emergency” driven by high temperature forecasts of around 95 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. PJM is projecting “peak loads of approximately 159,563 megawatts (MW) on July 1, 2026 and approximately 162,860 MW on July 2, 2026. These levels raise risks of supply shortfalls, threatening grid stability. The grid operator also flagged that some generation units could face constraints due to a restriction under an environmental permit or state requirement. The DOE said the order is necessary to ensure sufficient electricity supply and to protect public safety. PJM Interconnection serves a large swathe of the eastern United States, and officials warned that without intervention, extreme weather conditions could lead to system stress severe enough to impact the ability to meet electricity demand -
Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
mahantango#1 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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I am heading to my sister's beach house in Narragansett out on Pt Judith today. Same thing there where only a north wind will bring in any heat. Its absolutely wild to leave there when its like 72 degrees and you get to Providence and its 102. I setup a wunderground station there a few years back. High was 72 yesterday and its only briefly touched 80 3 times this year. Probably one of the coolest locations outside of an island in New England.
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
mahantango#1 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites ·Sosrdonpeth7u6mg4li24tl5c5292hh44tt4fc1cg15fic3397310gum0fu3 · Power outages do happen more often during heat waves! -
Car says 83 lol
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
mahantango#1 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Thats a good solid number, too bad others didn't make out so good. Last week I got most of my rain for the month. -
94/75 for DTW yesterday. So far overnight the low is 79 at DTW and 81 at DET.
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Loud storm
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Voyager replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
My total for June was 4.35". - Today
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That's good stuff but way overcomplicates it. The simple fact it that the sun doesn't really heat the air- it heats the ground which then transfers the heat to the air by radiation, and it was probably determined that 2 meters was a height where there is significantly less direct influence from retention of heat/ radiation of heat from ground. And again, that height is approximately human head level.
