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Yes, that really does happen a lot, but usually it's a dry heat we get after the frontal passage. I guess the dew point was so high that the small amount it fell after the frontal passage still kept it humid for most of the night.

Yes, because our atmosphere has become too thick Add more CO2 and more H2O to the atmosphere and you create a heat sponge that is very efficient at storing heat. To remedy this situation we'd have to remove both gasses from the atmosphere and thin our atmosphere enough so that it can't store heat that well.

Probably downslope westerly winds and the heat coming back east from the city/NJ from earlier in the day. In the summer it happens frequently that the immediate south shore heats up AFTER the cold front comes through because the heat from the city is finally blown east.

Yep and it looks like we'll get a second surge of cooler drier weather early next week.

has not felt this good outside with comfortable dewpoint since the 4th of july holiday.

It was merely making an anecdotal observation pertaining to the behavior of the PDO; nothing more. I wasn't deducing anything from it. Do I think the PDO will rise this winter? Yes...do I think that will be particulary important? No. I have already said that the PNA is likely to be more consistently negatibve than last season and that I expect the +WPO to continue. I forecast seasonal index behavior, not just weather....so the behavior of the PDO independent of the actual weather is relevent. There wasn't any emotion involved...I was simply adding a little levity to the discussion, as I do often do. But it is true that I can always discern which posts you will swarm to like an ant to spilled soda because I know how my post would be perceived ostensibly speaking.

How does it get that hot without the sun? Most of the day was very bearable, no sun at all and very comfortable right up until 1 pm or so and then the sun came out and there was a surge of heat late in the day. And didn't we have a cold front come through-- all the forecasts were for a cooler night as the front passed and lower humidity and I even saw the word *refreshing* being mentioned. July 5, 1999 was in a completely different class because it was over 100 that entire afternoon, as late as 6 PM. Yesterday was more a case of a very late surge of heat, basically at the last moment.

All these discussions and maps for me don’t have anything to do with emotions. It’s just simply a pattern analysis and discussion of what the recent pattern progressions have been. The real Darthvader you are referencing is the actual pattern which has been developing especially over the last decade. Once you start letting emotions creep into the process it taints your ability to make an objective analysis. Most on here would rather keep expectations realistic and then get surprised to the upside at least in a small way rather than expecting some big shift from these 2020s winters only to be disappointed again.

Additionally, a number of locations were within a degree or two of record high minimum temperatures. If not for the scattered convection, there probably would have been more records. Rain seems more effective at cooling than nighttime in 2025.

what would climate changed oct 2007 look like

Gotta get a new one. Most have ditched the ties nowadays.

How did I know that Bluewave's advanced optimism alarm system detected a faint modicum of hope in my post, and that he would rush to the scene to douse the flame in short order. Dude is the Darthvader of seasonal forecasting.

I like to use the PDO as a marker or gauge of what the 500mb pattern is doing. Since it’s being driven during the 2020s by these extreme 500 mb ridges across the Pacific leading to similar ridging across the U.S. across the Atlantic. So the strong -PDO is more indicative of the record warm SSTs than the cold ones in the old days. Sometimes during the cold season we see an October -PDO peak like in 2024 and 2021. Then a rebound heading into both winters. But it’s a signal that a very strong subtropical 500mb ridge may occur in the following months. While we had the strong -PDO mismatch last December, there was a very strong subtropical ridge from near Hawaii right into the Western Gulf. So last December was the 4th warmest on record for the CONUS. Back in 2021 we had the October -PDO peak which rose off those lows into December. But it was a signal that the 500 mb ridge driving the -PDO was very robust. This is when we had the record breaking Aleutian Ridge that December leading to the 2nd warmest December on record for the CONUS.

You figure realistically there’s about 4-6 weeks left with dews of 70 or higher all combined . That’s a lot of dews to go

what is this guy on

This summer has felt awful but we've only had a week of high temps. The humidity has been killer - it's Florida/SE Texas levels. That's the new climate unfortunately here.

Very hottest part is actually the next week.

We can revisit the “back is broken” narrative later next week.

77 here

Multiple showers here but not enough to make puddles. Severe-warned TS arrived - and died - at 4 PM, distant rumble, couple of 20-mph gusts, 0.01". Act 2 at 10:30 was a bit better with 0.09", nearly all in a pair of 30-second downpours. Not much to show for the 20°+ drop in TD. Since June 1 we've had 3.28" RA. Average is 7.12". Would be nice to catch siggy RA on Sunday before the next coolish dry days.

Yeah its been a while since we've seen a legit airmass like this. I was actually just looking off to the north and east and noticed how blue the sky is...haven't seen it this crisp in a while. Noticed the moon overhead too

Yes, it's shifting westward. The heat will probably be more prolonged in the western half of the CONUS than the eastern half.

It’s chillier up here. We just hit our low of 63.2° at 9am…so the CAA is legit. It’s a late Aug/early Sep vibe right now with the wind and fast moving Cu.

They're more like dew point fronts And outside of this past front, it's been dews going from 72-74 to 65-70 lol.