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Latest Euro gives us a couple shots of snow. And yeah, pretty chilly.

Haha, yeah I gotta bring up the ol NGM at least once per winter season. Yeah it was a crappy US model from the 90s/early 2000s.

This is the 5-day map from WxBell of the above pattern depicted by the 12z CMC....that is a BIG change. What we are seeing at 12z might explain the model mayhem. Is it the MJO finally exerting influence on modeling? I have sometimes noticed that the MJO doesn't really exert influence on modeling until about d10-12. I have noticed this in reverse when the pattern looked cold d10-15, but the MJO looked like it might stay cold while in the warm phases - nope, almost always flips as reality approaches. Is the SSW starting to have an early impact on the troposphere? Maybe, but it is a bit early for that influence. Either way, the EPO is showing up on modeling big time at 12z. Let's see if the Euro gets on board. I kind of doubt that it does as it IMHO is dealing with feedback issues in the SW. But let's see if it gets moved off of its spot just a little.

The growing concern isn't December 1-10. That still seems on track. The issue concerns what happens afterward e.g., should the GEFS's AO+ scenario develop. The GEFS compounds the issue with the development of an EPO+. The persistent PNA- remains in place.

if I could react to my own posts, I would react with a weenie as well

12z Euro has a Dec 5-6 coating

Euro

Euro has also trended colder in the mid range

That's why CPC using averages for the last 16 cycles on the CFS's maps. It's bad practice to treat the CFS as a deterministic operational model. That doesn't stop the vendors from providing such information to an often unaware audience (unaware of the tool's limitations).

Euro has also trended colder

i fear i'm too young to get this reference... is that like today's weenies running custom wrf models off of the 300hour GFS initial conditions?

Euro pretty much the same as last night on snowfall. Maybe spreads the wealth a little more north.

12Z Euro says hold on.

I still have a windows 95 machine cranking out NGM runs.

i hear the korean is the one to ride this winter....

Spot the MegaCAD (December 3)

You must be new

Right now, the long-range European guidance is suggesting the development of a Scandinavian Block near mid-December onward. That's not an AO-. Your location should be ok. Things should also be ok for cities such as Chicago, Detroit, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, etc. If the AO is more positive, areas south of New England would typically see a warmer outcome with reduced snowfall prospects. The SE U.S. looks warm, overall, for December, as the predominant regime through most of December is forecast to be NAO+ yielding to a Scandinavian Block.

stop looking at the op gfs.

And the 12z CMC has similar look to both the AIFS and GFS. EPO anyone?

12z GFS def had several chances in the long range. That period after about 12/2 gets pretty interesting. There’s still risk that we end up on the warm side but I like seeing a lot of reinforcing PV shots into SE Canada…that’s ultimately what will give us the confluence and antecedent airmass we need. So the more reinforcing shots that we see on guidance, the better our chances.

The 12z CMC has a below zero air mass sitting in the Plains and Ohio River Valley as a couple of impulses originate in the Gulf and head northeastward.

The 12z CMC almost has a winter storm by 198. Big changes on the deterministic models at 12z today - noted that the Euro has yet to run. The Euro AIFS, GFS, and CMC are showing a cold shot around d10-12 which wasn't there on yesterday's runs. It is a bruiser. I doubt the ensembles will switch that quickly, but it is a trend worth watching. This cold front had been on LR ext modeling for weeks, and then disappeared. edit...the CMC is actually close to something good 3x.

Yeah we just have a crusty couple inches in the yard and the fields are melted out. Highly elevation dependent start to winter. Only saw 3” total 24 hrs at all plots at Mansfield, like you said.