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I was thinking about 1998 and the only thing about that tropical season that I recall is Mitch at the end of the season. Now we're looking at a pretty uneventful season in general ending with Melissa which could become a high impact storm for Jamaica, eastern Cuba and or Haiti.

Both ops kick Melissa with a very strong coastal low. Sub 980mb on both the GFS and Euro verbatim.

AND THE 0Z CANADIAN is COMPLETLY DIFFERENT THEN 12Z -Impossible to start a storm thread at this point

Gfs now has a coastal

The ull

There are still too much of a chance eastern track over western Hispanola like the ICON is showing to ignore. It wouldn't be the first time the Euro has missed a center relocation and shown a track way too far southwest. Not saying it will happen, just keep it in mind when posting 200kt Hafs A-B runs. They are going to look really bad if this turns into Cat1 Shrederolla

I missed on Melissa by 12 hours, but this one is exactly what I talked about in Caribbean risk. It’s a powder keg.

If that trough were cutting off near the Great Lakes, we’d really be in business. But that doesn’t look to be on the table. Too progressive and it gets kicked, so that makes all this a much lower likelihood from the start.

Wayyyyy more promise than any other threat the last 5 years

So - nowhere do you explain why it's a dishonest "tactic" though. Are the facts incorrect there? Given that they seem to be correct, then yes, that does mean that the climate change threat is, in fact, overstated. It proves that yes - even though the planet may be warming, it in fact has not made life more dangerous. Your case is a circular argument. You're saying that what he says isn't true because... what he says isn't true. That's not a valid argument.

Take a look at July...it was much worse. Warm subsurface all beneath region 3.4.

Looking at this more, the subsurface has been beaten back in region 3.4 relative to where it was in September, but it's really a push from August....looks very similar to August. I don't think a collapse is imminent, but like I said...this does seem to validate JAMESTEC maintaining and east based event. I have been touting 2021-2022, 2017-2018 and 1995-1996 as EMI analogs since early last summer. This subsurface look is about according to plan if you ask me.

Both the 12z CMC and Euro have some iteration of this boomerang effect where a tropical system gets caught in a strong cold front, gets pulled northeast, and becomes a monster of sorts.

All I know is this scenario model run better not happen. After looking at the CMC noon run, this would make Sandy look like a baby. With all of the dead ash trees in Eastern PA now and especially in the LV and urbanized and major riverine flooding, this would be a one hell of a disaster for our area. I would see unbelievable debris dams in the waterways from these fallen limbs and trees that would wipe out major bridges in our area. The power outages would be unmanageable and you will not find a generator in stock for 250 miles from our region. The fact this scenario is already showing up for one week away warrants further discussion by all pro's. Even a slight hit would be a huge concern. There will nothing left at the NJ beaches for next year beaachgoers and NYC will get one hell of test of its new subway drainage pumping system. Definitely will keep an eye on these model runs as the media and so-called internet weather gurus on facebook/youtube will play this up real good in the next few days if the the model runs continue to show this tonight and tomorrow. Can you say Panic?

Interestingly, long range operational models are flirting with entraining a tropical system into an eastern trough around or just after Halloween. That is not without precedent during that time of year.

Yes I see this new intensity forecast so I will edit the potential scoring to provide a look at possible 4 major outcomes too.

Agreed. Had my wisdom teeth removed there.

If the EPS is right, we're squarely in the ballpark for some sort of hybrid or "TC guts" as Tip puts it. But what happens in the Caribbean has a huge impact on whether this is kicked or captured in some fashion, and that is a legitimate unknown right now. Location and speed will matter. There's going to be a lot of uncertainty in the coming days--more than usual, but it's hard to look at the EPS and GDMI and not be modestly intrigued. Again, pure tropical is a pipe dream IMO. If people are expecting that, close the shades. If we're talking hybrid though, nobody needs the center riding over their head for a highly impactful storm in New England or Atlantic Canada. A C3 or C4 wrapping into a substantial trough in the east would do, even if it's just off the coast (though if it's captured it'll come NW/NNW).

Woods and Meyers - can recommend for personal and my wife reasons.

By tomorrow it’ll be congrats Spain.

Ouch - had a girl that used teeth once. Yikes