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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Cyclone-68 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
I need something tropical to track…Even if it landfalls in Canada for the 10th year in a row -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Baroclinic Zone replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Feel free to dig around the other stations in the area. We wuz in the mid 80s today here. -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Sn0waddict replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Expanding off this it was acutely nice to see undisturbed blue sky out there today. Felt like for weeks we had been fighting haze, clouds or rain every single day. -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
kdxken replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Which you can't dispute . Enjoy the cool! -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
dryslot replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Yes, If it’s not going to be a Cuban it will be a Honduran. -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
512high replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
As a fellow cigar smoker, looks like a nice maduro, with a 7-up (lol) enjoy.... -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Damage In Tolland replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
So we’re resorting to Google and AI generated responses when facts get in the way . Good night -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
kdxken replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Torch Tiger replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Everyone lives on the runway..a great majority -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Damage In Tolland replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
So 4th hottest and it’s only the 18th. With a ton of heat coming last 14 days. Interesting -
2025 Spring/Summer Mountain Thread
Maggie Valley Steve replied to Maggie Valley Steve's topic in Southeastern States
Dying thunderstorm ending a very productive day around the house. It's nice to have patterns of our past! -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Damage In Tolland replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Well one poster does. A runway in the exposed North Atlantic -
I got down to 9C/48F for a low, by far the coolest of the summer. Nice air with some moisture from Thurs' light rain. High of 27C.
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
kdxken replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Worcester isn't even close to top five even on average. Christ it hasn't even hit 90 since the beginning of the month. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
SACRUS replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Highs: EWR: 87 ACY: 87 JFK: 85 * no intra hour highs again 2PM/8PM 6 hour max/min missing ACY: 85 BLM: 84 TEB: 84 New Brnswck: 84 LGA: 84 ISP: 82 NYC: 82 TTN: 81 -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
nycwinter replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
agree july 04/05 were comfortable days.. -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Torch Tiger replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
copium -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
kdxken replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
BDL stands at 4th hottest using the average. Average temperature means s***. You're not having a cookout at 2:00 in the morning. Who cares if it's 55 or 62? BDL in 2020 had 39 days at or above 90°. This year, 13 lolz... -
Convective season can be extremely frustrating, but especially when you located in the valley. The signal last night was for the front to position itself perpendicular to the Shenandoah with latitudinal positioning between I-66/64. That seemed to be the case for part of the day, but the push earlier this morning oriented the front further south with a greater theta_E tongue positioned into WV. As the day progressed, the front shifted back north, but that was when energy was beginning to move beyond the I-81 corridor and further east, so timing was off. Areas along the BR did get hit with some good storms late-afternoon and evening, but that ended up being too late and the proposed QPF maxima was offset by 50 miles or so. The key to this setup was timing of mid-level perturbations ejecting out of WV in tandem with diurnal destabilization with a tongue of elevated theta_E. The setup happened, but occurred a bit further downstream than what was forecast. WV areas and neighboring AKQ (Wakefield) CWA got hit pretty hard and the shift was noted on the afternoon D1 update that @yoda referenced above with the expansion of the MDT. Warrenton just came in with a FFW, so it was a tough miss for areas that were initially progged to see the greatest QPF. I am on night shifts and today is also my birthday. I'm not going to let something like this ruin my day. Forecasting convection is one of the hardest elements to get fully correct. The ingredients were there, but offsetting the positioning of where is typically the strongest bias in getting something "wrong". Hopefully you guys cash down there, but others just to your north and northeast have had lots of chances the past few months. The crappy luck of the draw. I know for one people near Winchester have got to be getting annoyed since they have the most defined whole in total precip past 45 days. Your area isn't far behind. Sorry it missed my man.
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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Torch Tiger replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Easy top 10 or even 5 but we only use BOS * -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Damage In Tolland replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Notice how king of ACATT has not posted much this summer. He gets it -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
butterfish55 replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Leaves have that leathery look. The swamp maples starting to turn -
July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat
Damage In Tolland replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
How about the other sites . BTV, ORH, BDL. Easy top 5 -
2025-2026 ENSO
donsutherland1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Although winters are warming in the Great Lakes Region, the initial point made earlier in this thread concerning the coldest temperatures is not unreasonable. I used the Ann Arbor (University of Michigan COOP) to illustrate the point given some of the commentary regarding the Detroit threaded record. Instead of taking the lowest temperature for each winter, I focused on the lowest 1% of temperatures for a somewhat broader perspective. I also included 30-winter moving averages for the lowest 1% of temperatures. These temperatures have been range-bound (ranging from -10.1° for winters winters 1882-83 through 1911-12 to -3.1° for winters 1930-31 through 1959-60). The most recent value is -5.3° for the 30-winter period ending with winter 2024-25. The historic value for the entire period of record is -6.8°. Below are charts for individual winter and 30-winter values (trend line is +0.3° per decade) and also a closer look at 30-winter values on a narrower temperature scale to show the variability in the 30-winter mean value. It should be noticed that the sharpest rise in the 30-year moving average occurred prior to 1960. The slower rise in extreme cold in the Great Lakes Region likely has to do with how marine heatwaves in the Atlantic and Pacific have increasingly focused the coldest air masses into the Plains/Great Lakes area rather than over a larger stretch of North America through their influence on synoptic patterns. If one looks at the warmest 1% of winter minimum temperatures, one has seen a steady rise since the 30-winter period ending in 1959-1960, unlike the roller-coaster with bottom 1% of low temperatures. What this means is that winter temperatures have grown more volatile allowing for a relatively stable bottom 1% of temperatures even as the top 1% of warmest low temperatures has continued to increase. Below are the 30-year mean difference between the highest and lowest 1% of minimum temperatures. It is uncertain whether this increased volatility is merely part of a transition in a warming climate (warmer highest 1% of lows but more stable coldest 1% of lows for a short period of time before the coldest 1% lows shift upward), or whether the increased volatility, which allows for continued shots of extreme cold, will become a "new normal" for perhaps several decades. For now, elevated volatility rules.