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Hour 270......lolz

Welcome to Yoda, and just a general note, the updated scoring is finished, as a group I am fairly confident that was the highest scoring month we've had as a group but nobody quite made it past the record high scores from 2014 (808 for this group and 810 for Mallow who was then a regular participant). I found one error in scoring back in the June annual summary, it didn't really affect the contest much as the score involved was still in the same rank, but this has been edited into a correct format back there and otherwise most of the ranks in the contest remained the same since everyone had quite similar scores in July. Tough crowd when you score 800 and can't move up more than a fraction of a rank! Even Persistence scored well. Tom maintained his lead in the annual contest and expanded it slightly relative to the chase pack as he scored 780. I rode a high score out west to the monthly high of 800. So if you're looking for the updated scoring, it's quite easy, just scroll back on the previous page (if you're seeing this on page six maybe some have a different pagination), and before all the August forecasts you'll find the updated scoring. Before the updated scoring is the anomaly report for the month and that contains an updated seasonal max report. Contest scoring for that won't take place until I feel like we've passed ther peak of summer heat which in some recent years was early September. In general despite the high anomalies in central regions, ORD and IAH are not running above the consensus of our forecasts, most other places are near those or above. We''ll see if this trend to high scoring continues on into August. A table of August forecasts will follow on. We would have had several record breaking scores except for ATL being quite a bit warmer than our range of forecasts, 72 was high score there. Some of the anomalies puzzle me at times, for example, NYC was reporting +1.9 on the 30th, had -1 on the 31st and finished +2.0. That must indicate a bit of a jog in running means for 1-30 July and 1-31 July, or it's an error one way or the other. Same thing can be said for SEA which was at +1.0 on 30th, had a +2 for the 31st and finished +0.8. As it turns out, a lot of peoples' scores were differentially impacted by those two oddities so it made no difference to totals but if you had gone below +2.0 for NYC and above +1.0 for SEA you lost eight points on those two. I didn't notice any other strange ones but I have seen it happen in previous months too. Could just be that the 30-year data base had a lot of warm days on 31st in NYC and chilly ones in SEA on July 31.

Fwiw, I predicted 5 August NS (vs active era avg of 4) in the basin based mainly on the last few days of active Euro Weeklies along with MJO.

That’s a post @jburns would have endorsed with enthusiasm!

I feel like this is going to be a special fall...warmth and humidity well through October. Will be able to watch football and hockey outside in shorts. With being to wear shorts with a hockey/football jersey it will look like you're not wearing pants.

Lol I wouldn't go that far Dewpoint is a bit too high for that

no...that fact that it covers a smaller geographical region. Most of that chart is early autumn. Barely servicing that warm side of the debate, would be a fairer impression of that chart. But again ... I don't trust that GFS solution anyway. Just sayn'

How many NS are predicting for august chap?

95+ skimpy lol

SAINT LEZAK HAS SPOKEN Tropical Development Windows Are Approaching Two Key LRC Predictions Are Already in the Forecast The next three weeks mark a critical transition in the tropics. As Saharan dust slowly retreats and the thunderstorm activity increases over the open Atlantic, Gulf, and Caribbean Sea, we are forecasting a much more favorable environment for tropical development. In fact, two of our key LRC-based tropical windows—predicted months ago—are expected to show up soon. These are not random guesses. These are precise forecast targets based on storm energy identified last fallthat is now cycling back through the pattern. As you’ll see in the graphic below, the timing and placement of these systems align directly with the Weather 20/20 LRC predictions that have been part of our Tropical Outlook Guide since spring. We’ll continue to track these windows closely in our daily updates and highlight what’s coming next a week from now in our early August Tropical Update next Saturday. Conclusion: A Quiet Start, But a Pattern-Driven Storm Season Awaits While the hurricane season has begun on a quiet note, we are not fooled by the calm—and you shouldn’t be either. The Saharan dust outbreaks and persistent summer anticyclone have done their job suppressing early activity, but the LRC tells a deeper story. We’re entering a new phase now—one where multiple tropical windows, renewed storm energy, and shifting jet stream dynamics begin to align. As we’ve shown throughout this report, the pattern is right on schedule. https://weather2020.substack.com/p/tropics-stay-quiet-impacts-from-saharan

Based loosely on the 12Z Euro/UKMET/GEFS, the 6Z/0Z GEFS, the 0Z/12Z EPS, yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, and the forecasted MJO, it appears to me that there’s a somewhat enhanced chance of a TS/H threat around the NE Caribbean ~8/9-10, around the Bahamas/FL ~8/12-13, and either the US Gulf coast or the US E coast ~8/14-16. This isn’t an explicit forecast but rather just notable hints of what may be to come for those areas. It could easily look very different as early as tomorrow. 12Z EPS is somewhat ominous/more active for the Bahamas/CONUS vs the 0Z EPS during Aug 12-16. *Potential* mid August threat from NE Caribbean to CONUS as it appears now:

Well Liberty, only if we have and they can be filmed at a future forum get together. As always ….

Pretty amazing it is only 65 at peak heating. I saw some folks out and about in sweaters. Nice break.

this possibly could be the E storm based on the ECMWF probability models

Ha ... pretty skimpy and petty. But I honestly don't know if the GFS run is very confident. The EPS and GEFs means are trending larger heights below 40 N across the continent in the time frame above... Meanwhile, both operational ECMWF and GFS are flip flopping - this 12z run flopped back cooler. Yet ...still the GFS gets a day with big numbers, no less. Flip flopping means limited skill so ens means are more useful. I don't think it's a cooler august. That much seems pretty evident. Question is whether it's mundanely AN or if it may host another heat wave or two.

my o my, acatt ruined

Same here. Actually feels pretty awesome lol, though I'll probably be done with this reset by tomorrow and ready for the return to seasonable weather.

It's not just the trough domain ...notice the heights in the west also inching polarward. Basically it's a problem plaguing the models, one that's gotten more obvious in the last 10 years, not going the other way with supposed upgrades. They have to add heights everywhere when moving from ext --> mids --> short term. I come up with sci fi idea. I can't help myself ... Like, they are trying to wholesale remove global warming from the ambience. Or it's a conspiracy to do so because MAGAt's have a mole in the modeling R&D offices at NCEP... heh 'Course, that myth gets immediately debunked when considering the zagnut scaled intellect of the MAGAtsphere: it could never produce an NCEP modeler, huh

Even when they win.. they still lose

Another 3 plus inch rainstorm in Westfield, and that was at 10 last night. I can hear my lawn growing 15 miles away

The 18th will be 20 years since Wisconsin's state-record tornado outbreak occurred on a day when the 1630 UTC tornado outlook looked like this: The most notable was the Stoughton F3, to my knowledge still the most recent killer tornado in the MKX CWA and the Madison media market. It missed the house where I was living with my parents at the time by about 1/3 mile to the north (the fatality occurred on the north end of our subdivision). Also still the most recent truly long-track, photogenic, Plains-tier high end tornado in southern Wisconsin.

It's a nice airmass, but *shocker* it modified from a week or so ago. The Euro AI backed off a little every run.

Skin cancer as well Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

An east west band of scattered thunderstorms, some heavy, has popped up from W of my area to offshore. I started hearing thunder a little while ago and now it is raining at varying intensities.

Even when I was little, I marveled at roofers in Texas. Granted, you'd hire them at the Lowes at 5 am and they'd be done by noon but still. That's a young man's job for sure.