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6z euro for tomorrows rain: >0.75” 12z NAM nest for tomorrow: 0.00”

The MEI v2 was just released for JA: +2.5 vs +2.4 for JJ. That’s the 2nd bimonthly in a row at a record high for the bimonth (back to 1979). The record high for any bimonth is +2.9. Here’s the rundown for JAs of +0.5+: 2026: +2.5 1997: +2.3 2015: +2.0 1982: +1.9 1987: +1.5 2002: +1.0 1986: +1.0 1994: +0.9 2004: +0.8 2009: +0.6 2006: +0.6 1993: +0.6 2023: +0.5 2018: +0.5 1979: +0.5

Where's all the heat you said was coming to to the area? El Nino? EL BUSTO!

Yea, save the precip regression for when it matters. I understand it's going to be warm...got it, but you def. want to swing the chamber as many times as possible if temps are an issue.

Cooler fall weather looks like its coming after mid-month. Average highs still firmly in the 70s though, dont expect anything too cool. Just fresh air.

what an awful way to cast something as important as a vote, especially when the alternatives were better prepared, better qualified and had better policy positions that would have helped everyday Americans a whole lot more than "Gulf of America" and "World Liberty Financial"

I drive by the Cambridge? Reservoir off of 95 quite often. I can’t believe how low it is. You can walk across parts of it. Water is confined to the middle. Can’t be good

Not the whole winter. Maybe December.

Meanwhile, for those planning on a fishing trip off Japan, PDO up to -.73 as of yesterday.

Temps still in the upper 80's . Looks like the Eagles home opener is gonna be a little wet. It's still Summer Damnit! I'm not leaving the Summer thread yet!

Paul, your site functionality is impressive. This must have taken a lot of work to get it all running, even with AI writing code. TBH, though, we are still not agreeing on the use of raw weather data to develop climate trends, although at really large scales there is little difference between the raw and processed. --Mike

FYP

That season may represent a decent proxy for what next year would look like with a weak El Nino.

Use of sensible weather analogs will pose a unique challenge this year given the rapid state of flux throughout the hemisphere....you can't take them at face value. -EPO predominated Winter 2018-2019, so given that this season should have a +EPO, flipping the anomalies may provide some value. Coolest se, warmest high plains.

Looks like the AC goes back on for a few days. 83F/DP 69F

2018 looks like the early leader in the clubhouse.

Pretty content with the 0.92" that fell here.

Time to start compiling a sensible weather analog composite....last one prior to the outlook.

Yup. It’s consistent with it undershooting 1+2

I mean all you have to do is look at previous strong EL Nino episodes...they all (I'd presume) had very low ACE seasons. The EL Nino's of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 only had seasonal numbers in the single digits. 2015-2016 I think was a bit higher but still below the climatological average

Any insight as to potential windows that are less hostile for the east coast?