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Euro and GFS are (thankfully) staying consistent on a notable pattern shift over the state in the upcoming days with the westward retreat of the H5 subtrop furnace high this week. Which is about on schedule nearing the end of August. And allowing the southward-trailing shortwaves that have been staying mainly east over LA state the past several days, to invade more of TX. Latest 0Z HRRR and NAM tonight showing noteworthy H5 shortwave energy traveling south through the state on Wednesday, along with some modest DL shear. And even steepening ML lapse rates (closer to -8 on AI and IC models). Although as is more common in EN summers, the cells look to be more high-based. Which could pose a damaging wind or more significant microburst threat if afternoon heating can be taken advantage of. - - - On a side note regarding the summer heat this year (compared to EN summer 2023), this EN summer in 2026 overall has been a lot more tame. Before the more substantial ongoing heat wave this week and last week, there has not been many daytime heat records to speak of in the state. On the contrary this summer (at least near the coastal region), overnight warm lows have been the bigger headline. Staying above normal in the 80s for an extended period in July and the first part of August. Even around 85 F near the coast in STX a significant amount of nights.

Down to 56F in E CT with fog…great day once the fog burns off

...Northeast... A broad mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward toward the Northeast on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across Quebec with a cold front extending southward into the Northeast and eastern Great Lakes. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of the front with broad ascent supporting storm development both along and ahead of the cold front. Multicell clusters capable of damaging winds, and perhaps isolated large hail, are expected. A more focused region of greater potential may exist from central Pennsylvania into eastern New York. The potential for cloud cover across the region casts some uncertainty and therefore, confidence was not high enough for a Slight Risk at this time

Running out of runway. Probably good for my forecast though lol.

70% now

0Z UKMET: doesn’t quite get it to Dolly strength but still has it as a TD although this run then weakens it while moving rapidly WNW in the MDR followed by a reformation 2 days later moving W much more slowly toward the SE Bahamas:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.4N 33.9WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 27.08.2026 48 12.4N 33.9W 1010 281200UTC 27.08.2026 60 13.0N 37.8W 1009 300000UTC 28.08.2026 72 13.2N 42.0W 1009 311200UTC 28.08.2026 84 14.1N 46.7W 1010 320000UTC 29.08.2026 96 CEASED TRACKINGNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 20.3N 67.0WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 31.08.2026 156 21.0N 68.4W 1010 340000UTC 01.09.2026 168 20.9N 70.6W 1009 32

Honestly at this stage in my life I really do enjoy more urban areas. My go would be in NYC area, not quite the city but close enough.

Maybe it'll clear out in time.

Thanks for pointing this out, Mitch. Very interesting for sure! Check this excellent video from met. Travis Roberts just out a few hours ago. Within it, he talks about the initial flattening out (RONI, the top of your 2 graphs) that wasn’t there before, the same thing you pointed out! Also, check out how flat Aug has been on CDAS since the 5th! I mean that’s almost flat as a pancake type flat. Keep in mind that several models had forecasted a record breaking warming for just one month (for any month) of ~1C in August!

Early September heat is on. Huge ridge of high pressure.

Who cares? Even our summer extremes have been boring as fuk in New England.

Steve it definitely looks like wetter times ahead after some early Fall weather. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

BDL climo is 82/60 on Friday. A high of 85° is not a torch lol.

64 here with nice cool air flowing in through the windows...great sleeping weather!

I don't think I'd mind living in really any state, but the southeast quarter of Wyoming really catches my eye... Winter wx, close to beautiful nature, tons of spring/summer supercells with big hail and tornadoes. Would def need a good windbreaker, though

95L needs to get it's act together fast if it wants steal a name

Pretty good stretch for the Front Range overall. That small area of below normal precip is likely just missing data.