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If it’s fake to begin with, but then advects into your neighborhood, does it become real? Philosophers want to know.

oh yeah I agree with that. Deep cyclonic flow over there vs. solar irradiance in Florida. for the FL portion to contribute more to you need a deep arctic outbreak down there imo.

Warmth flooding all of North America? Everything . It’s torched PAC flow. Hopefully it’s wrong

What's wrong with that?

https://x.com/weatherunited1/status/2115863484160413760?a=-cnIRn2C6ep1gjp4xlE&s=46

2018? Near normal 2014? Above normal

"needs" to be "corrected" with estimated homogenization adjustments

The state of Delaware study findings are now up and available at https://chescowx.com/raw-vs-ncei-delaware/

It's a good approach ... the EOF derivatives are purely numeric ... they are not qualitative in that sense. In this case, the significance of the negative anomaly with that trough near NE of HA is probably lifting the PNA index farther up than the height field down wind is driving it down..

Our string of very stormy near/on Halloweens is broken. The amount of extreme storms on this date is crazy. From snowtober to Sandy to The Perfect Storm to the 2017 epic 975 bomb.

A new phenomenon may be beginning known as 'El namis'

Kidding aside, we’re basically just arguing between low thickness cold and relatively higher thickness cold. You have rad pits in the northern Rockies that pull frequent subfreezing mins in July only to hit 80s in the afternoon. The cold is real, but it’s not really a sign of the intensity of the airmass. Ironically most of our cold airmasses originate from radiational cooling and deep highs in the arctic.

that tweet about sea levels in peru is nuts

I decided to take the day off and hike up Sugar Loaf Mountain. What's with the hazyness today? Low lever moisture? Wildfire smoke? Chem trails? It really limited the view and dulled the fall color. It was still a beautiful hike.

Just keeping it real ?

The recent dry pattern was kickstarted by the 2023-2024 el nino. October 2024 had zero rainfall here so maybe we are now entering another dry pattern, Ray. This October actually reminds me of it. Very not el nino like. I know you mentioned the lack of MC forcing but for now I'm going with 1965-66, 1972-73, 2001-02 and 2023-2024 as analogs. Got to put a non nino analog in there too and I refuse to use 1997-1998 as an analog it's too easy and seems intellectually lazy to me. How can el ninos be grouped by MC forcing Ray? I haven't seen this mentioned before this year. Last winter 1993-94 was thrown around as an analog. And if next winter is a la nina some will throw around 1995-96 as an analog. You'd change your mind if it was followed in sequence with the winter of 1995-96. Dry and sunny sounds much better. Give me 1965-66 1972-73 2001-02 or 2023-2024 instead. Is the Atacama Desert, the driest place on the planet, finally going to get some rain? I've wanted to visit it when all those red desert flowers bloom!

This is a fake post

Been a cool, cloudy day in the 40's with a gusty W wind. Upper 40's around midnight will be todays high with an am low of 40 which may drop below that before midnight tonight. Even so, seasonable wx.

MWN hit -47 during that early Feb 2023 blast (with gusts to 144 mph). I'd earlierfound another -47 set in January 1934 but without the site, so maybe a rad pit, maybe not.

Lol WTF boring begat boring

jesus christ this place sucks lately. I will never understand why anyone gives a fuck what someone else calls fake.

Why that color it looks like smog or smoke to me. This is a very good thing I hate el ninos. Enjoy the nice weather! Don I once saw something up here during our warm February 2018 that I still remember. No idea what it was but I'll describe it. In a completely clear blue sky there was a rainbow fragment visible at the zenith straight up but the colors were in reverse! No idea what that was or what it meant but an hour after that I was driving through NJ on my way to NY and there was a fire in the woods near I-80 where we were driving. Could there be a connection? What would what I saw be called?